Gasogi United vs Bugesera: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates even chances for both teams, with a slight edge for a draw scenario. Gasogi United shows very poor home form with only a 17% home win rate and a massive 58% of matches played without scoring a goal, making them the least effective attacking team. Bugesera has slightly better form over their last five matches (1.6 PPG vs the hosts' 0.8 PPG), but their away record is also unimpressive - only an 11% away win rate. A key factor is Bugesera's high draw percentage on the road (44%) and the fact that Gasogi has recorded four draws in their last five games. Given the low efficiency of both teams and their tendency to share points, a draw seems to be the most probable outcome of this matchup.
Gasogi United vs Bugesera: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Gasogi United played Bugesera in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 14 March 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Gasogi United: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. Bugesera: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Gasogi United scores 0.74 and concedes 1.13 goals per match. Bugesera scores 1.00 and concedes 1.05. League average: 2.09 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Gasogi United 35%, Bugesera 55%. Over 2.5: Gasogi United 26%, Bugesera 50%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 35%.
xG, shots and style
Gasogi United has higher xG: 1.13 vs 0.95. Gasogi United: 6.0 shots per match, Bugesera: 5.5.
Match halves
Gasogi United: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.35. Bugesera: half-time lead 9%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Gasogi United: 31-45+ (5 goals). Bugesera: 61-75 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 2.09 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 35%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates even chances for both teams, with a slight edge for a draw scenario. Gasogi United shows very poor home form with only a 17% home win rate and a massive 58% of matches played without scoring a goal, making them the least effective attacking team. Bugesera has slightly better form over their last five matches (1.6 PPG vs the hosts' 0.8 PPG), but their away record is also unimpressive - only an 11% away win rate. A key factor is Bugesera's high draw percentage on the road (44%) and the fact that Gasogi has recorded four draws in their last five games. Given the low efficiency of both teams and their tendency to share points, a draw seems to be the most probable outcome of this matchup.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Gasogi United | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bugesera is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Gasogi United · 1.6 pts / match - Bugesera
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bugesera is 35% better for: goals scored per match.
0.74 goals / match - Gasogi United · 1 goals / match - Bugesera
Bugesera is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.13 goals / match - Gasogi United · 1.05 goals / match - Bugesera
Gasogi United scores in 52% of matches (12 of 23 matches), while Bugesera keeps a clean sheet in 36% (8 of 22 matches).
Bugesera scores in 68% of matches (15 of 22 matches), while Gasogi United keeps a clean sheet in 30% (7 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Gasogi United
Over / Under - Bugesera
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Gasogi United is 58% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.22 pts / match - Gasogi United · 0.77 pts / match - Bugesera
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Gasogi United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bugesera - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 9% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Gasogi United
Bugesera
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Gasogi United | Liga | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.87 | 2.09 | • 2.05 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 35% | 46% | ▲ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 26% | 35% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 30% | 33% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 57% | 63% | ▼ 59% |
| Goal after half-time | • 70% | 70% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Gasogi United 0 - 1 - 0 Bugesera. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Gasogi United vs Bugesera?
The National Soccer League match finished Gasogi United 0:1 Bugesera. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Gasogi United vs Bugesera?
Gasogi United score 0.74 goals per game on average and Bugesera 1.00. The National Soccer League average is 2.09 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 35% of Gasogi United's matches and 55% of Bugesera's.
What form are Gasogi United and Bugesera in?
Over the last 5 games Gasogi United have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and Bugesera 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Gasogi United vs Bugesera?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.