Gateshead vs Worthing: match statistics

Worthing sit 9th and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, winning 3 of them, while bottom-of-the-table Gateshead have picked up just one point over the same period. The visitors have scored 10 goals in those matches, compared with just 2 for the hosts, clearly highlighting the gap in current attacking form. Away from home, Worthing average 2.5 goals and 5 shots on target per match, while Gateshead concede an average of 2 goals at home and allow opponents chances worth 1.65 xG. The hosts’ chances are boosted by Worthing’s vulnerable defence: the visitors concede an average of 2 goals away from home, with opponents recording 2.06 xG. Despite this risk, current form and the goal-scoring advantage point to a Worthing victory.

BTTS landed in 67% of Gateshead’s matches and 100% of Worthing’s, while the visitors are yet to keep a clean sheet. Gateshead average 1.5 goals scored, whereas Worthing concede 2.0, which points to a home goal. Worthing, in turn, average 2.5 goals scored, and Gateshead have conceded as many as 3.2 per match across their last 5 games. The main risk for this market is Gateshead’s recent lack of goals, with just 0.4 per match in their last five, but Worthing’s defence and both teams’ season-long results still point to a greater likelihood of goals at both ends.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 100% of Worthing’s matches and 67% of Gateshead’s matches. In their last five games, Gateshead conceded an average of 3.2 goals, while Worthing scored 2.0, significantly increasing the chances of the visitors finding the net. The hosts could also get on the scoresheet, as Worthing concede an average of 2.0 goals per match and their opponents generate an average of 2.06 xG. The Over 2.5 goals line is also well supported—it landed in 60% of Gateshead’s last five matches and 80% of Worthing’s—but Over 1.5 offers a greater margin of safety. The forecast of 3.60 total goals reflects the match’s high-scoring potential, although the small sample of recent results calls for caution with higher lines.

The strongest signal in favour of Worthing leading at the break is their recent form: the visitors were ahead at half-time in 4 of their 5 matches, while Gateshead were trailing at that stage in 4 of 5 and failed to score before half-time in those games. Across the full matches in this run, Worthing averaged 2.0 goals and remained unbeaten, while Gateshead scored 0.4 goals, conceded 3.2 and lost 4 times. This supports the visitors holding on to their lead and makes 2/2 the preferred HT/FT selection. However, the risk is significant: Gateshead led at the break in 5 of their 6 home matches, while Worthing did so in 3 of their 4 away games, so the venue-specific statistics are not as clearly in favour of the visitors leading. In addition, the visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, meaning a scenario in which the home side leads at half-time but ultimately loses remains a realistic alternative.