Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor: match statistics

Alanyaspor hold a slight edge in current form: they have collected 4 points from their last 5 matches, compared with 3 points for Gaziantep FK. The visitors have scored 6 goals during this period, one more than the hosts, although both teams have conceded 9 goals, averaging 1.8 per match. Gaziantep have lost as many as 4 of their last 5 matches and managed to win only once, significantly undermining their credibility despite home advantage. Alanyaspor have also suffered 3 defeats in their last five outings, but a draw and a better goal tally point to slightly greater attacking potential. With both sides showing defensive weaknesses, the match could be closely contested; however, an away win appears marginally more likely.

Recent form points to a moderate edge for the both-teams-to-score scenario: BTTS occurred in 40% of Gaziantep’s last five matches and in 60% of Alanyaspor’s games. Both defences conceded 1.8 goals per match during this period, increasing the likelihood that even the less clinical side will find a scoring opportunity. Gaziantep averaged 1.0 goals, while Alanyaspor averaged 1.2, with a similar creative output measured by xG at 1.45 and 1.35, respectively. In addition, the hosts allowed opponents 1.53 xG per match, while the visitors conceded 1.42 xG, meaning both sides regularly allow their opponents to create high-quality chances. The signal is not particularly strong, as Gaziantep have lost four of their last five matches, but the high number of goals conceded by both teams leans more towards BTTS - Yes.

Both teams have conceded 1.8 goals per match over their last 5 games, which significantly increases the likelihood of at least two goals. During this period, Gaziantep averaged 1.0 goal scored per game and Alanyaspor 1.2, with a combined record of 11 goals scored and 18 conceded across their last 10 appearances. The 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 80% of the last 5 matches played by each team, although neither side’s finishing was fully consistent. Their chance-creation potential is supported by the xG figures: 1.45 for the home side and 1.35 for the visitors, while both teams allowed their opponents to record an xG above 1.40. The strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as weak defenses and a projected total of 2.60 goals provide this line with a clearer margin of safety than Over 2.5.

The strongest signal is Alanyaspor’s advantage before the break: in their last five matches, the visitors were leading at half-time in 40% of games, while Gaziantep were trailing at that stage in as many as 60%. The hosts averaged just 0.4 goals before the break and failed to score in the first half in 80% of those matches, with a first-half goal difference of -3. Alanyaspor have also been far from clinical, but they boast a better first-half record, averaging 1.4 points per match compared with Gaziantep’s 0.8, while conceding an average of 0.8 goals versus the hosts’ 1.0. After the break, both teams still frequently concede, averaging 0.8 goals conceded for Gaziantep and 1.0 for Alanyaspor, which supports the visitors’ ability to maintain their lead. The hosts’ form is clearly weaker, with four defeats in their last five matches and an average of 1.8 goals conceded. Therefore, the most likely scenario is Alanyaspor leading at half-time and securing the full-time victory.