Gedania Gdańsk vs Lech Poznań II: match statistics

Gedania Gdańsk remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while Lech Poznań II have lost 3 of their last 5 games. The hosts have scored 14 goals over this period, 5 more than the visitors, and their return of 2.2 points per game clearly exceeds Lech’s 0.8. The Poznań side do create more chances away from home, averaging 2.19 xG and 19 shots, but they concede as many as 3 goals per match and have failed to keep a single clean sheet. At home, Gedania average 3 goals scored and convert 36% of their shots, compared with the visitors’ 18% finishing rate, giving them the edge in what is likely to be an open game. The hosts’ defence is not watertight either, allowing opponents 2.52 xG, so Lech should have opportunities of their own, but the current form trend points towards a Gedania win.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong, as both Gedania Gdańsk and Lech Poznań II have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches this season, and neither team has kept a clean sheet. In their last five matches, this figure stands at 80% for both sides, while Gedania has averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, compared with Lech II’s 1.8 goals scored and as many as 2.4 conceded. Their attacking potential is also supported by high xG figures: 2.07 for the hosts and 2.19 for the visitors over their last five appearances. Gedania averages 9.0 shots on target per match, while Lech II averages 8.5, increasing the chances of both defences being breached. The league’s BTTS rate is 74%, meaning the data for both teams clearly exceeds the competition’s already goal-friendly norm. Therefore, the recommended market is BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal), while BTTS - No is not supported, as it only requires at least one team to fail to score and does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The signal for at least 2 goals is very strong, as both teams have exceeded this line in 100% of their league matches so far. In their last five games, Gedania averaged 2.8 goals, while Lech’s reserves conceded as many as 2.4, clearly increasing the hosts’ attacking potential. The visitors still have offensive arguments: their average xG stands at 2.19, compared with the 1.75 xG recently allowed by Gedania. Both teams scored and conceded in 80% of their last five matches, while the league average of 3.59 goals further supports the scenario of an open game. Over 1.5 is the safest option, as even with lower finishing efficiency, it leaves a clear margin against the projected 3.45 goals.

Gedania are in clearly superior current form: they have averaged 2.8 goals and remained unbeaten in their last five matches, while Lech II have conceded an average of 2.4 goals and lost 60% of their games. The hosts led at the break in 40% of their recent matches, while a further 60% ended level at half-time; meanwhile, Lech II were trailing at half-time in as many as 50% of their games. The difference in first-half performances is particularly significant: Gedania conceded an average of just 0.6 goals before the break, compared with 2.0 for the Poznań side, who also failed to keep a clean sheet in any first half. After the interval, the hosts averaged 1.8 goals in their last five appearances, making them most likely to maintain or extend their lead. Consequently, the most probable HT/FT scenario is 1/1.