General Caballero JLM vs Sportivo Carapeguá: match statistics

Both teams have an identical record in the last 5 matches: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, equating to 0.8 points per game each. In that period General Caballero JLM scored 4 and conceded 9 (averaging 0.8 goals for and 1.8 against per game), while Sportivo Carapeguá scored 5 and conceded 7 (1.0 for and 1.4 against per game). The visitors therefore have a better goal differential over the last 5 games (-2 vs the hosts’ -5) and a slightly superior offensive efficiency (1.0 vs 0.8 goals per game). In the table the home side are 10th and the visitors 14th, which indicates some historical home advantage, but current defensive numbers and goal balance favor Sportivo Carapeguá. Based on this I forecast an away win with probabilities: 45% for the visitors, 30% for a draw and 25% for the home side.

Seasonal data are incomplete (many fields = 0.0 or -1.0, e.g. seasonScoredAVG_home = 0.0 and shot_conversion_rate_home = -1.0), so I rely mainly on the last 5 matches and league stats. In the last 5 games the home side had BTTS at 60% (3/5) and the away side 40% (2/5), with average goals scored 0.8 (home) and 1.0 (away). Both teams concede: home concede on average 1.8 per match, away 1.4, and the league average goals per match is 3.33, which increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Additionally the league has a high BTTS rate of 67%, and the home side’s defensive weakness (recent xG against 1.64) suggests at least one team regularly allows scoring opportunities. Considering 67% league BTTS, 60%/40% in the last 5 and average concessions of 1.8 and 1.4 goals, I tip 'BTTS - Yes' — probability 68% for BTTS and 32% against.

In the last 5 matches General Caballero averages 0.8 goals scored and concedes 1.8, while Sportivo Carapeguá scores 1.0 and concedes 1.4; their xG over this period is 0.90 (home) and 0.87 (away), with xG against of 1.64 (home) and 0.99 (away). Averaging offensive xG and xG against yields projected expected goals of 0.95 for the home side and 1.26 for the away side, totaling 2.21 expected goals. Using a Poisson distribution with lambda=2.21, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is approximately 65%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) about 38%, and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) about 18%. The league averages 3.33 goals per game and 67% of matches are Over 2.5, but the last 5 matches of both teams show only 40% Over 2.5, therefore I select Over 1.5 (65%) as the strongest signal.

Both teams drew at half-time in 40% of their last five matches, and the average goals at the break were 0.8 for the home side and 0.8 for the away side (0.4 scored and 0.4 conceded), which favors HT draws. The second half shows an advantage for the visitors: in second halves the away team averaged 1.0 goals versus 0.2 for the home team, and away teams won the second half in 20% of cases while home teams did so in 0%. Additionally, home second halves finished with at least 0.5 goals in 100% of recent matches, and away second halves in 80%, suggesting decisive action often occurs after the break. Based on these figures the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and an away win after 90 minutes (X/2), therefore the highest probability is assigned to that scenario (24%), with realistic alternatives being 1/2 (18%) and 2/2 (18%).