Genoa vs Juventus: match statistics

Juventus have a clear edge in chance creation away from home, averaging 2.38 xG and 7.67 shots on target, while Genoa average 1.24 xG and 3.25 shots on target at home. The hosts concede an average of 2 goals at home from opponents generating 2.00 xG and have yet to keep a clean sheet there, boosting the visitors’ chances of scoring. Juventus’ away defence allows chances worth an average of 0.94 xG, although they concede 1.33 goals per match, so Genoa could pose a threat as well. Recent results call for caution, however: Juventus have won just 1 of their last 5 matches and conceded 8 goals in that span, while Genoa have won 2 of their last 5. Even so, the visitors’ advantage in chance quality points towards a Juventus win, though a draw remains a realistic possibility.

Juventus have yet to finish an away match without scoring, and their average xG is 2.38, with 7.67 shots on target per match, pointing to an away goal. Genoa score an average of 1.25 goals at home and generate 1.58 xG, while Juventus keep a clean sheet in 33% of their away matches. In addition, over their last five matches, the teams conceded an average of 1.4 and 1.6 goals respectively, suggesting both defences have been allowing opponents chances. Caution is warranted, however: BTTS has landed in only 25% of Genoa’s home matches, compared with 67% of Juventus’ away matches. The visitors’ stronger attacking numbers and the hosts’ realistic chances of scoring give a slight edge to BTTS - Yes.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been breached in any of Genoa’s matches to date or in 67% of Juventus’ matches. In the matches under consideration, the teams averaged 1.25 and 1.33 goals scored respectively, while their output over the last five games fell to 0.8 and 1.0 goals per match. Juventus do create plenty of chances, with an average xG of 2.38, but Genoa limit their opponents to an xG of 0.83, which weighs against a very high-scoring game. The projected total of 2.45 goals points to value on Under 3.5, although the league average of 2.99 goals means a more open match cannot be ruled out.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Genoa were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches and failed to score before half-time in 4 of those 5. Juventus were behind at the break in each of their last 5 matches, but the hosts’ low scoring rate in this phase limits the likelihood of them taking the lead at the break. After half-time, the advantage could shift to the visitors, who won the second half in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Genoa did so only once. Juventus also create more chances: their average xG is 2.38 compared with Genoa’s 1.58, and they average 7.67 shots on target per match versus Genoa’s 4.5. The X/2 HT/FT pick remains uncertain, however, as Genoa have won 50% of their home matches, while Juventus have won only 33% of their away matches.