Genoa vs Napoli: match statistics

Napoli are in better recent form: they have collected 10 points from their last five matches, recording 3 wins and a draw, while Genoa have accumulated 7 points. The visitors scored 12 goals during this period, averaging 2.4 per match, compared with Genoa’s 9 goals. Their defensive record is equally significant, as Napoli conceded only 7 goals in five matches, while the hosts conceded as many as 14—an average of 2.8 goals conceded per game. Genoa rank higher in the home table, in 8th place compared with Napoli’s 14th position in away matches, but the lack of detailed season data limits the significance of this factor. The visitors’ edge in efficiency, wins and goal difference over the last five matches points to a slightly higher probability of victory.

The signal for both teams to score is clear: BTTS occurred in 60% of Genoa’s last 5 matches and as many as 80% of Napoli’s. Genoa averaged 1.8 goals scored during this period but conceded as many as 2.8, which significantly increases Napoli’s chances of finding the net. Napoli scored an average of 2.4 goals per match and recorded an xG of 1.54, while Genoa allowed opponents an xG of 1.48. The hosts also have solid grounds to respond, as their average xG of 1.31 is higher than Napoli’s xG conceded of 1.00. The goal difference over the five matches—9:14 for Genoa and 12:7 for Napoli—points to an open game with a realistic chance of goals at both ends, supporting the BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal selection rather than BTTS - No, which only means that at least one team fails to score and does not automatically imply a 0:0 result.

Data from the last five matches points to an open game: Genoa averaged 1.8 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.8, while Napoli scored 2.4 goals per match. Overall, Genoa’s record during this period stands at 9:14, compared with Napoli’s 12:7, confirming a high probability of at least two goals. The 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 60% of the most recent matches involving both teams, with both sides scoring in 60% of Genoa’s games and 80% of Napoli’s. Napoli’s xG stands at 1.54, while Genoa’s xG against is 1.48, so the visitors should consistently create chances. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as the projected 2.90 goals provides a clear margin above this line.

Napoli are showing the better current form: they score an average of 2.4 goals per match, while Genoa concede as many as 2.8, and the visitors have won 60% of their recent matches compared with 40% for the hosts. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as Napoli were leading at the break in 80% of the matches analysed and scored an average of 1.2 goals before half-time, compared with Genoa’s 0.75. Although Genoa did not trail at half-time in this sample, their average of 1.8 goals scored per match is clearly inferior to their opponents’ attacking output. After the interval, Napoli continue to score an average of 1.2 goals, while matches involving both teams remain open, averaging 3.8 goals in the visitors’ matches and 4.6 in Genoa’s. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that Napoli take the lead at the break and maintain it until the final whistle.