Getafe CF vs Deportivo La Coruña: match statistics

Deportivo La Coruña sit 5th and remain unbeaten after 4 rounds, with a record of 2 wins and 2 draws, while Getafe have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats. The visitors are significantly more effective away from home, scoring an average of 2 goals from 3.5 shots on target per match, but their average xG is only 0.91, suggesting an output above the quality of the chances created. Getafe are unbeaten at home, conceding just 0.5 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their games, although they generate only 1.01 xG. The hosts average 11 shots compared with Deportivo’s 7, but manage just 1.5 shots on target, so their advantage in attempts may not necessarily translate into a win. With both teams recording two draws in four matches and Getafe boasting a solid defensive record, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome.

Both teams currently have a 100% BTTS rate, and neither has kept a clean sheet, clearly supporting goals at both ends. In their last five matches, the BTTS rate was 60% for Getafe and 80% for Deportivo, still exceeding the league average of 54% at least in the visitors’ case. Getafe have recently averaged 1.2 goals, while Deportivo have averaged 1.6, conceding 1.0 and 1.2 goals per match respectively. The hosts create an average of 1.21 xG, while Deportivo’s defence allows opponents 1.55 xG, strengthening Getafe’s chances of scoring. Although the visitors’ xG stands at only 1.02, Getafe allow opponents 1.22 xG and have no clean sheets, making a goal for each team the more likely scenario. BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal is therefore the preferred outcome, rather than BTTS - No / No Goal.

The goal projection points to a moderately open match, but without strong grounds to expect four goals: the combined xG of both teams stands at 2.52. Getafe generate an average of 1.12 xG, while Deportivo allow opponents 1.70 xG, supporting an estimate of around 1.38 home goals; on the other hand, the visitors produce only 0.91 xG per match. In their last five matches, both teams went over 2.5 goals in only 40% of cases, despite Deportivo scoring an average of 1.6 goals and Getafe conceding 1.0. Both teams have scored and conceded in every match so far this season, making the 1.5 line look safe, but the strongest edge lies with Under 3.5, as results featuring four or more goals are not supported by their recent xG output.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time and a Getafe win at full-time (X/1), because the hosts have been level at the break in 60% of their last five matches. Deportivo have also frequently failed to produce a winner in the first half, recording a half-time draw in 40% of their recent games, although they have averaged 1.0 goals before the interval compared with Getafe’s 0.4. After the break, Getafe improve offensively, averaging 0.8 goals in their last five matches, while Deportivo score only 0.6. The hosts also have the edge in chance quality: their average xG is 1.12, whereas Deportivo’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.70. Both teams have conceded in every match in the seasonal data, so an evenly balanced start could turn into a narrow Getafe advantage after half-time.