Ghazl El Mehalla vs ENPPI: match statistics

Ghazl El Mehalla have a slightly better record over their last five matches, collecting 7 points from 2 wins and a draw, while ENPPI have earned 4 points. The hosts have scored 5 goals during this period, 2 more than their opponents, and their average home xG stands at 0.80 compared with ENPPI’s modest 0.60 away from home. However, Ghazl El Mehalla’s key weakness is their home form: in their only such match, they lost 0:3, failed to score and managed just 2 shots on target on average. ENPPI also lost their only away fixture, but scored 2 goals; at the same time, they allowed their opponents an xG of 1.98, giving the hosts a genuine chance to end their scoring drought. Both defences are conceding 3 goals per match under the current conditions, so a closely contested game is expected, with a slight edge to the hosts due to their stronger recent form.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as the scenario with goals scored by both teams occurred in only 20% of the last 5 matches involving the two sides. During this period, Ghazl El Mehalla averaged 1.0 goals with an xG of 0.98, while ENPPI managed just 0.6 goals with an xG of 0.77, limiting the chances of both teams finding the net. ENPPI did concede an average of 1.8 goals per match, but its low attacking potential suggests that it may fail to respond even after conceding. The league-average BTTS rate of 38% also supports the outcome in which at least one team fails to score. ENPPI’s seasonal data is based on a very small sample and shows 100% BTTS, but the current form and lower xG figures for both teams are clearly more conservative.

Ghazl El Mehalla’s last five matches produced an average of 2.4 goals, with the team scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 goals per game. ENPPI also averaged 2.4 goals over the same period, but scored only 0.6 goals, while its xG stood at just 0.77. Both teams have a low rate of matches with goals scored by both sides, at only 20% in their last five appearances, which limits the risk of a very high-scoring game. The combined projected xG of approximately 2.28 is close to the league average of 2.19 goals, and only 38% of league matches have gone Over 2.5 goals. The Under 3.5 goals line therefore has a clear edge, as it requires at least four goals to lose despite the moderate attacking output of both teams.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Ghazl El Mehalla win in the match, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 games, compared with just 1 of ENPPI’s last 5. During this period, Ghazl El Mehalla averaged 1.0 goal per match and won 40% of their games, while ENPPI scored 0.6 goals on average and lost 60% of their matches. After the break, the hosts averaged 0.6 goals, whereas the visitors failed to score and conceded an average of 1.0 goal. The low average of 0.8 first-half goals in the hosts’ matches, together with the league-wide figure of 38% of first halves featuring at least one goal, further supports a cautious, drawn opening before the home side gains the advantage late on.