Gicumbi vs Mukura: match statistics
Gicumbi vs Mukura: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Gicumbi played Mukura in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 22 May 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Gicumbi: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Mukura: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Gicumbi scores 1.09 and concedes 1.56 goals per match. Mukura scores 1.06 and concedes 1.09. League average: 2.10 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Gicumbi 59%, Mukura 56%. Over 2.5: Gicumbi 50%, Mukura 38%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 37%.
xG, shots and style
Gicumbi has higher xG: 1.12 vs 1.09. Gicumbi: 6.9 shots per match, Mukura: 5.6.
Match halves
Gicumbi: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.50. Mukura: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.72.
Goals by minute
Gicumbi: 31-45+ (8 goals). Mukura: 61-75 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 2.10 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 37%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a draw (X); average xG are virtually equal: Gicumbi at home has xG 1.10 vs away xG 1.08, indicating balanced chance-creation potential. Hosts have better shooting efficiency at home — conversion 17% with an average of 6.75 shots and 2.44 shots on target per match — and score on average 1.13 goals per game, but also concede 1.5 goals at home. Mukura sit higher in the table (7th vs 13th), have more wins this season (12 vs 9) and a significantly better defensive record over the season (35 conceded vs Gicumbi’s 50), and away they concede 1.25 goals on average while scoring 0.94. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 6 goals and collected 1.2 points per game, whereas Mukura have 4 goals and 0.8 points per game; both teams have underperformed defensively (Gicumbi 9 conceded in last 5, Mukura 8), which favors a scoring draw. Considering the equal xG (1.10 vs 1.08), the hosts’ superior efficiency (17% vs 13%) and Mukura’s advantage in the table and number of wins, I estimate the probabilities as: draw 40%, home win 35%, away win 25%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Season statistics show asymmetry: Mukura has BTTS in 69% of matches, Gicumbi only 44%, and the league average BTTS is 45%, which is a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. In the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS at 60% and during that period Gicumbi conceded an average of 1.8 goals, while Mukura conceded 1.6 goals, indicating that in the short term both sides regularly allowed goals. xG and shots suggest chances are created by both teams: season xG is 1.10 for the home side versus 1.08 for the away, in the last 5 matches the home side’s xG rose to 1.31 against Mukura’s 0.82, and shots on target are 2.46 and 2.58. The counterargument is that Gicumbi has a season clean sheet rate of 44% (versus Mukura’s 19%), meaning the home team more often keeps a clean sheet, but their last 5 matches show clear defensive issues (1.8 goals conceded). Taking into account Mukura’s high BTTS rate (69%), the xG balance and recent form, I estimate the probability of BTTS - Yes at 68% and No at 32%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Seasonal stats strongly support the 1.5 line: Gicumbi has 69% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Mukura 75%, yielding an average probability of ≈72% for at least 2 goals. xG and shooting metrics back this conclusion — Gicumbi generates xG_for 1.10 and averages 7.38 shots with an 18% conversion rate, while Mukura concedes xG_against 1.14 and averages 7.17 shots with a 13% conversion. I estimate expected goals of ≈1.17 for Gicumbi and ≈0.97 for Mukura (total ≈2.14), which is clearly above the 1.5 threshold but below 2.5; season-long over 2.5 rates are 44% and 31% respectively, although the last 5 matches for both teams show an 80% over 2.5 rate. As a result, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: estimated probabilities are Over 1.5 ≈72%, Over 2.5 ≈42% and Over 3.5 ≈13%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The home side appears to have both the Half-Time and Full-Time advantage: they average 1.19 goals per match versus 0.94 for the visitors and have a 50% win rate compared to the visitors’ 25%, increasing the likelihood of a home victory. At the break the home team led in 31% of matches (5 times), while half-time draws occurred in 44% of fixtures (7 times); additionally, in the last 5 matches the home team scored 8 goals by Half-Time versus only 2 for the visitors (average HT 0.8 vs 0.0), which supports a lead at the break for the hosts. The home side also posts higher xG (1.10 vs 1.08) and their defense concedes on average 0.93 xG compared to 1.14 for the away team, along with superior shot conversion (18% vs 13% for the visitors), all of which facilitates maintaining the lead. Furthermore, the hosts keep a clean sheet in 44% of matches and in as many as 75% of cases at Half-Time, whereas the visitors have a 19% seasonal clean-sheet rate; therefore the strongest signal from the data is a home lead at Half-Time and a home win at Full-Time (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Gicumbi | Mukura | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.47 | 0.61 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Gicumbi is 20% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Gicumbi · 1 pts / match - Mukura
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mukura is 43% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.56 goals / match - Gicumbi · 1.09 goals / match - Mukura
Gicumbi scores in 72% of matches (23 of 32 matches), while Mukura keeps a clean sheet in 31% (10 of 32 matches).
Mukura scores in 81% of matches (26 of 32 matches), while Gicumbi keeps a clean sheet in 19% (6 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Gicumbi
Over / Under - Mukura
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Gicumbi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mukura - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Gicumbi
Mukura
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Gicumbi | Liga | Mukura | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.66 | 2.10 | • 2.16 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 59% | 46% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 37% | • 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 34% | ▼ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 61% | ▲ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 75% | 70% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Gicumbi 0 - 0 - 1 Mukura. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Gicumbi vs Mukura?
The National Soccer League match finished Gicumbi 3:2 Mukura. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Gicumbi vs Mukura?
Gicumbi score 1.09 goals per game on average and Mukura 1.06. The National Soccer League average is 2.10 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 37% of games. Both teams score in 59% of Gicumbi's matches and 56% of Mukura's.
What form are Gicumbi and Mukura in?
Over the last 5 games Gicumbi have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Mukura 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Gicumbi vs Mukura?
The statistical background for Gicumbi vs Mukura — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.