Gil Vicente vs FC Arouca: match statistics
Gil Vicente vs FC Arouca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Gil Vicente played FC Arouca in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 11 May 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Gil Vicente: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. FC Arouca: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Gil Vicente scores 1.44 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. FC Arouca scores 1.28 and concedes 1.94. League average: 2.70 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Gil Vicente 47%, FC Arouca 53%. Over 2.5: Gil Vicente 50%, FC Arouca 66%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Gil Vicente has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.19. Gil Vicente: 13.9 shots per match, FC Arouca: 10.5.
Match halves
Gil Vicente: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.69. FC Arouca: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Gil Vicente: 31-45+ (14 goals). FC Arouca: 46-60 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.70 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Gil Vicente holds a clear statistical edge: at home they have scored 46 goals this season, averaging 1.69 goals per match, while Arouca have 41 goals away this season and only 1.06 goals per match. The hosts concede 0.88 goals at home on average with an average xG against of 1.14, whereas the visitors concede as many as 2.06 goals on the road with xG against 1.44, highlighting Arouca’s defensive vulnerability. In terms of chance quality Gil Vicente dominate — home average xG is 1.62 with 5 shots on target per match and a 12% conversion rate, while Arouca away record shows xG 1.13, 2.75 shots on target and a 10% conversion. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 7 goals each, but Gil conceded 4 versus Arouca’s 7 and has slightly more points per game (1.6 vs 1.4), indicating greater home stability. Considering league position (6th vs 11th), 56% home win rate and 38% clean sheets for the hosts versus Arouca’s 25% wins and 63% losses away, I predict a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal indicators show a moderate BTTS tendency: Gil Vicente has BTTS in 56% of matches, Arouca in 50%, averaging about 53% versus the league level of 48%. The last 5 fixtures give a mixed signal — Gil has only 40% BTTS in the last 5, Arouca 60%, but both teams have averaged 1.4 goals in their last 5 matches. Defensively Arouca is more exposed (seasonally concedes 2.06 goals and 62 goals conceded) than Gil (1.81 and 32), while Gil also creates more chances: 4.25 shots on target and xG 1.25 versus 2.75 and xG 1.13 for Arouca. Clean sheets are rare — Gil has 19% of matches without conceding, Arouca 25% — and matches over 2.5 goals occur in 69% of Gil’s games and 63% of Arouca’s, which favors Goal/Goal. Considering the seasonal 56%/50% BTTS, low clean sheet rates 19%/25% and a high level of xG against around 1.45 (1.46 and 1.44), I favor the BTTS scenario and estimate the probability at 65% versus 35%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model projects 1.35 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.30 for FC Arouca (total 2.65), calculated as the average of team attacking xG and opponent defensive xG: Gil has attacking xG 1.25 vs Arouca conceded xG 1.44, Arouca has attacking xG 1.13 vs Gil conceded xG 1.46. Seasonal rates show Gil Vicente has 88% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Arouca 69%, and both teams register high Over 2.5 shares: 69% and 63%, which supports a higher goal count. Gil averages 4.25 shots on target per match versus Arouca’s 2.75 and posts better finishing efficiency (14% vs 10%), increasing the likelihood of converting chances. Arouca has conceded 62 goals this season, averaging 2.06 goals conceded per match, and although Gil’s last 5 matches indicate improved defense (0.8 goals conceded on average), the combined projection of 2.65 goals sits closer to the 2.5 threshold than 3.5. Therefore I back the over on the 1.5 line as the strongest signal (probability Over 1.5 ≈ 90%, Over 2.5 ≈ 66%, Over 3.5 ≈ 30%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A Poisson model based on first-half goal averages (home side scores 0.56 on average to the break while the visitors concede 1.13 in the first half) yields expected first-half goals of approximately 0.85 for Gil Vicente versus 0.69 for Arouca, translating to an estimated 36% chance of the home side leading at the break. Gil Vicente is stronger after the break — they score on average 0.94 goals in the second half versus Arouca’s 0.56 — so with a draw at half-time the model estimates the home side’s chance of winning the match at ~43% (draw ~36%). Season-long figures support this picture: the hosts average 1.5 goals scored per match versus the visitors’ 1.06 and record more on-target shots 4.25 vs 2.75, while Arouca concedes 2.06 goals per match on average, which facilitates Gil Vicente’s control of results after the break. Additionally, if the home side holds a lead at the break, our calculations indicate they have about a 79% chance of winning the match, which is why the 1/1 scenario receives the highest probability. The visitors’ weaker points-per-game average (0.88 pts/match) and lower shot conversion rate (10%) reduce Arouca’s likelihood of mounting a turnaround, hence scenarios featuring their win are less probable.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Gil Vicente | FC Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Gil Vicente is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Gil Vicente · 1.4 pts / match - FC Arouca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Gil Vicente is 13% better for: goals scored per match.
1.44 goals / match - Gil Vicente · 1.28 goals / match - FC Arouca
Gil Vicente is 94% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Gil Vicente · 1.94 goals / match - FC Arouca
Gil Vicente scores in 75% of matches (24 of 32 matches), while FC Arouca keeps a clean sheet in 22% (7 of 32 matches).
FC Arouca scores in 72% of matches (23 of 32 matches), while Gil Vicente keeps a clean sheet in 38% (12 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Gil Vicente
Over / Under - FC Arouca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Gil Vicente is 61% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.56 pts / match - Gil Vicente · 0.97 pts / match - FC Arouca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Gil Vicente - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
FC Arouca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (14 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -11 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Gil Vicente
FC Arouca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Gil Vicente | Liga | FC Arouca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.44 | 2.70 | ▲ 3.22 |
| Both teams scored | • 47% | 48% | ▲ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 54% | ▲ 66% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 29% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 70% | ▲ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 72% | 79% | ▲ 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Gil Vicente 0 - 1 - 0 FC Arouca. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Gil Vicente vs FC Arouca?
The Liga NOS match finished Gil Vicente 1:3 FC Arouca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Gil Vicente vs FC Arouca?
Gil Vicente score 1.44 goals per game on average and FC Arouca 1.28. The Liga NOS average is 2.70 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Gil Vicente's matches and 53% of FC Arouca's.
What form are Gil Vicente and FC Arouca in?
Over the last 5 games Gil Vicente have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and FC Arouca 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Gil Vicente vs FC Arouca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Gil Vicente vs FC Arouca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.