Gimhae City vs Yongin City: match statistics

Yongin City sit 13th, while Gimhae City are only 17th, and the visitors’ overall season record (4 wins, 10 draws and 7 defeats) is clearly more stable than that of the hosts, who have lost 13 of their 21 matches. Gimhae have failed to win any of their last 5 games, scoring just 3 goals in that run, and have a 0% win rate at home alongside a staggering 78% defeat rate. The hosts’ defence concedes an average of 2.33 goals per home match, without a single clean sheet, whereas Yongin allow an average of 1.50 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in 20% of their away matches. The visitors are also more effective in front of goal: they score 1.20 goals per away match with a 12% conversion rate, compared with Gimhae’s 0.78 goals and 7% efficiency. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as Yongin have drawn 50% of their away matches, but the hosts’ weaknesses and the visitors’ superior defensive organisation point towards a Yongin win.

Seasonal BTTS figures are high on both sides: 64% for Gimhae City and 70% for Yongin City, compared with the league average of 63%. Gimhae concede an average of 1.45 goals per match, while Yongin concede 1.50, with low clean-sheet rates of 18% and 20%, respectively. Yongin score an average of 1.20 goals, with an xG of 1.23, while the hosts, despite their weaker recent finishing, have created chances worth 1.38 xG across their last five matches. The main risk to the pick is Gimhae’s form, with only 3 goals scored in their last five matches and BTTS landing in 40% of those games. Nevertheless, the visitors’ defence has conceded an average of 1.60 goals over this period, so the more likely scenario remains one in which both teams score.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with at least 2 goals: the Over 1.5 line has landed in 82% of Gimhae City matches and 80% of Yongin City matches. The hosts concede an average of 1.45 goals per match, while the visitors concede 1.50, with clean-sheet rates as low as 18% and 20%, respectively. Yongin City score an average of 1.20 goals, while Gimhae City allow opponents an xG of 1.58, strengthening the case for an away goal. Although Gimhae City have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, their average xG over this period stands at 1.38, indicating that their results have underperformed the quality of chances created. Over 1.5 goals is the strongest selection, combining a high historical hit rate of around 80% with the defensive weaknesses of both teams.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Yongin City win at the final whistle, as the visitors were level at the break in 70% of their matches, compared with 45% for Gimhae City. The opening stages should be cautious: Yongin average just 0.30 goals before half-time, while both teams keep a clean sheet in the first half in 60% and 55% of matches, respectively. After the interval, however, the advantage shifts to the visitors, who average 0.90 goals compared with Gimhae’s 0.73, while over their last five matches their average has risen to 1.00 goal, against just 0.20 for the hosts. Gimhae have failed to win any of their last five matches and scored only 0.60 goals per game during that run, whereas Yongin have the higher attacking xG, 1.23 compared with 1.17.