Gimnasia Jujuy vs Chaco For Ever: match statistics

Gimnasia Jujuy have a clear home advantage: they win 75% of their home matches, scoring an average of 2.00 goals and conceding just 0.75. The hosts consistently create chances, averaging 16.33 shots and 5.92 shots on target per match, with an xG of 1.94. Chaco For Ever score just 0.67 goals per away game, and fail to score in 58% of such matches; their averages are only 8.33 shots and 2.42 shots on target. However, the visitors are in good current form, having won 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded only 4 goals in that run, which increases the likelihood of a closely contested game. Despite Gimnasia’s weaker recent form, their home record and significant difference in attacking quality on this ground point to a more likely home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Chaco For Ever’s poor scoring consistency: the visitors average just 0.67 goals per match and failed to score in as many as 58% of their games this season. Their seasonal rate of matches in which both teams scored is only 33%, significantly lower than Gimnasia Jujuy’s 64% and the league-wide figure of 41%. At home, Gimnasia create more chances, recording an xG of 1.38 and an xG conceded of 1.08, while Chaco average 8.33 shots and just 2.42 shots on target per match. Although the visitors’ last five games were more open, with BTTS at 60% and an average of 1.6 goals scored, their long-term lack of effectiveness remains the stronger signal. The more likely scenario is therefore that Gimnasia will score, while at least one team—primarily the visitors—will end the match without a goal.

The season profile clearly supports a low-scoring outcome: 91% of Gimnasia Jujuy’s matches and 83% of Chaco For Ever’s games finished with under 3.5 goals, compared with a league average of just 1.93 goals. The hosts score an average of 1.18 goals, while the visitors average only 0.67, and Chaco failed to score in 58% of their matches. The xG model indicates moderate attacking potential, with Gimnasia averaging 1.38 xG and Chaco 1.04 xG, resulting in a projected total of 2.21 goals. The last five matches provide slightly more support for goals, as both teams had 40% of their games finish Over 2.5 goals, but this still does not undermine the very strong Under 3.5 trend. The best option is Under 3.5, as the line only loses with at least four goals, and both teams very rarely reach that threshold.

The strongest signal comes from Chaco For Ever’s current form: the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding just 0.8, while Gimnasia have lost 3 of their 5 games, with averages of 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The difference is even more pronounced before the break, as the hosts have failed to score in the first half in any of their last five appearances and were trailing at half-time in 60% of them, whereas Chaco were leading after 45 minutes in 60% of their matches. The visitors are currently averaging 0.8 first-half goals compared with Gimnasia’s 0.0, and their advantage in this phase stands at +2 goals, while the hosts have a -4 differential. Although Chaco have struggled away from home over the course of the season, Gimnasia also win only 27% of their matches, and the visitors’ superior current form supports the expectation that they will maintain their lead until the final whistle. The 2/2 scenario is therefore the most likely, with the draw/away win HT/FT outcome remaining an important safeguard.