Gimnasia Jujuy vs Gimnasia y Tiro: match statistics

Gimnasia Jujuy are clear favourites at home: they have won 69% of their home matches, while Gimnasia y Tiro have lost 50% of their away games. The hosts average 1.88 goals per home match, compared with 0.94 for the visitors away from home, and their superior chance creation is reflected in an xG of 1.90 versus 1.17. Jujuy also average 5.56 shots on target at home, compared with 4.00 for their opponents away, and have failed to score in only 6% of those matches; the visitors have drawn a blank in 44% of their away games. Both teams have recorded two wins in their last five matches, but the hosts have scored 8 goals to the visitors’ 4. Although Gimnasia y Tiro have conceded just 3 goals in that span, compared with the hosts’ 7, the gap in attacking output and the home-and-away records point to a Jujuy win.

It is more likely that at least one team will fail to score: Gimnasia Jujuy keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches, while Gimnasia y Tiro fail to score in 44%. The hosts concede an average of just 0.56 goals per match, while the visitors score 0.94, limiting their chances of finding the net. The BTTS - No pick is also supported by a league BTTS rate of 39% and a rate of 38% in the hosts’ matches. One significant counterargument is that both teams scored in each of the hosts’ last 5 matches, but this happened only once in the visitors’ last 5. Therefore, despite Gimnasia Jujuy’s recent run, I favor the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 94% of Gimnasia Jujuy's matches and 81% of Gimnasia y Tiro's, providing a strong basis for this line. The hosts concede an average of just 0.56 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 56% of games, while the visitors fail to score in 44% of their matches. The league average of 1.94 goals also points to a moderate goal total. The hosts' last five matches, which averaged 3.0 goals, warrant some caution; however, just 6% of their matches this season have featured Over 3.5 goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals is a stronger pick than a lower line, despite the forecast projecting 1.94 goals in total.

A draw at half-time is likely: both teams have finished the first half level in 50% of their matches so far, while Gimnasia y Tiro have not conceded before the break in any of their last five games. After the break, the hosts should gain the upper hand, averaging 0.50 goals in the second half, while the visitors concede 0.63. The gap has been even more pronounced over the last five matches: Gimnasia Jujuy have averaged 1.0 second-half goals, compared with just 0.2 for Gimnasia y Tiro. The hosts have won 50% of their league matches this season, against 31% for the visitors, making a half-time draw followed by a Gimnasia Jujuy win at full-time the most likely outcome (X/1).