Gimnasia Jujuy vs Tristán Suárez: match statistics

Gimnasia Jujuy are very strong at home: they have won 82% of their matches, remain unbeaten there, and average 2.18 goals per game. The hosts create significantly more chances, recording 16.36 shots, 5.91 shots on target, and an xG of 1.92, while Tristán Suárez manage just 6.2 shots and an xG of 0.97 away from home. The visitors have a solid defensive record, conceding an average of 0.50 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 70% of their away matches, which significantly increases the likelihood of a closely contested game. However, their attack remains limited: they score an average of 0.70 goals away from home and fail to score in 40% of their away matches. Tristán Suárez come into the game on a run of 3 wins in 5 matches and with just 1 goal conceded during that period, but Gimnasia’s superiority in chance creation and home efficiency point to a home win.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as the seasonal percentage of matches in which both teams scored is only 36% for Gimnasia Jujuy and just 20% for Tristán Suárez, compared with 40% across the league. Both teams keep clean sheets very regularly: the hosts in 64% of matches and the visitors in as many as 70%, while conceding an average of just 0.55 and 0.50 goals respectively. Tristán Suárez score only 0.7 goals per match on average, and in their last five appearances they have scored 3 goals, or 0.6 per game, while conceding just one. Gimnasia create more chances, averaging 10.36 shots compared with their opponents’ 6.2, while the visitors’ xG of 0.97 further limits their prospects of breaking down the hosts’ defence. Although Gimnasia have had BTTS in each of their last five matches, the visitors’ current BTTS-less run and their highly disciplined defence more clearly support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The profile of both teams clearly points to a low-scoring game: Gimnasia concede an average of 0.55 goals at home, while Tristán Suárez concede just 0.50 away from home. The visitors score only 0.7 goals per match, having scored 3 times and conceded just 1 goal in their last five games. Under 2.5 goals landed in 64% of Gimnasia’s matches and as many as 90% of Tristán Suárez’s, while the 3.5-goal line was not surpassed in 91% and 90% of cases, respectively. The league also has a very low average of 1.92 goals per match, and more than 3.5 goals have been scored in only around one in ten games involving either team. Therefore, the strongest pick is Under 3.5, because even with Gimnasia holding an edge in chance quality, reflected by an xG of 1.26 versus the visitors’ 0.97, a four-goal scenario remains unlikely.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Gimnasia Jujuy win, as the hosts have been level at the break in 82% of their matches, compared with 50% for Tristán Suárez. The opening stages are expected to be very cautious: Gimnasia average 0.36 goals before half-time, while the visitors average 0.50, with just 0.73 and 0.90 total goals respectively in their matches during this period. In their last five outings, Tristán Suárez were level at half-time in 80% of cases and failed to score a single goal in those first halves. After the break, the advantage should shift towards the hosts, who average 0.64 goals in second halves compared with the visitors’ 0.20 and win this period in 55% of their matches. Gimnasia also have greater attacking potential over the full match, with an xG of 1.26 and an opponent xG against them of 0.97, while Tristán’s defence allows an average xG of 1.53.