Gimpo Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings: match statistics

Suwon Bluewings lead the league and have a clearly superior season record: 13 wins and 32 goals scored, conceding 19, while Gimpo Citizen have won 7 times and scored 26 goals. Both teams are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws each, so the hosts’ current form limits the extent of the visitors’ advantage. Away from home, Suwon average 1.64 goals, have failed to score in none of their matches and concede only 1.00 goal per game, while Gimpo draw as many as 71% of their home matches. The visitors also have the stronger defensive record in terms of chance quality, allowing 0.96 xG compared with Gimpo’s 1.22, and 45% of their away matches end with a clean sheet. Gimpo generate a high 1.99 xG at home, so a draw remains a realistic outcome, but Suwon’s superior efficiency—10% versus 8%—favours a narrow win for the league leaders.

The scenario in which at least one team fails to score has a slight edge, mainly due to Gimpo’s solid defence. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their matches this season and concede just 0.73 goals on average, while in their last five games they have allowed opponents only 0.6 goals per match. Gimpo has recorded BTTS - Yes in just 36% of matches and failed to score in 36%, increasing the risk that they will not convert their chances against Suwon, whose average xG conceded is 0.96. Suwon should pose a threat, averaging 1.64 goals, generating 1.88 xG and registering 5.73 shots on target per match, but the hosts’ strong defence could limit them to a win without conceding or a 0:0 draw. The last five matches involving both teams produced BTTS - Yes in 60% of cases, so the edge for BTTS - No is narrow, although Gimpo’s season data is clearly more restrictive.

Suwon Bluewings create more chances than Gimpo, averaging 1.88 xG and 5.73 shots on target per match compared with the hosts’ 1.51 xG and 4.27 shots on target. However, Gimpo remain very solid defensively, conceding just 0.73 goals on average, keeping a clean sheet in 55% of matches, and allowing opponents only 1.11 xG. In their last five matches, the two teams conceded a combined total of 3 and 5 goals respectively, confirming the limited potential for a four-goal game. Moreover, under 3.5 goals landed in 73% of matches for each team, making Under 3.5 the strongest pick despite the visitors’ good current attacking form.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Suwon Bluewings win at full-time, as Gimpo were level at the break in 64% of their matches, while Suwon recorded a draw at half-time in as many as 80% of their last five games. The hosts are very difficult to dominate before the break: they have conceded an average of just 0.18 goals during the first half and have never gone into half-time trailing. However, after the interval, the attacking advantage lies with the visitors, who score an average of 1.18 goals compared with Gimpo’s 0.73, while their average has risen to 1.6 goals across their last five appearances. Suwon also create more chances over the course of the match, recording an xG of 1.88 compared with the hosts’ 1.51 and 5.73 shots on target versus 4.27, supporting a later turnaround in their favour.