Girona FC vs RCD Mallorca: match statistics

I back Girona to win (1). At home they average 1.19 goals per match and have a 38% home win rate, whereas Mallorca score only 0.88 on the road and register just a 6% away win rate. Girona produce higher home xG (1.30 vs 1.05), attempt more shots (10.5 vs 8.81) and more shots on target (3.94 vs 3.44), and control the game better with 51% possession versus Mallorca’s 43%. Defensively the hosts also look superior — Girona concede 1.50 goals at home compared to Mallorca’s 1.94 conceded away, and Girona keep clean sheets in 31% of home matches versus only 6% clean sheets for visitors on the road. Although Mallorca have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches versus Girona’s 5 and have collected more points per game in that run (1.4 vs 0.8), their poor away record (goal difference -17 and 75% away losses) makes the hosts the clear favourites.

Statistical analysis supports a BTTS - Yes scenario: Girona has 71% of matches with both teams scoring at home, and Mallorca 63% away. In the last 5 matches Mallorca recorded 80% BTTS and scores on average 1.6 goals, while Girona in the last 5 has 60% BTTS and averages 1.0 goal — this indicates Mallorca’s superior short-term finishing and Girona’s consistent scoring. Girona generates home xG of 1.40 and averages 4.59 shots on target, whereas Mallorca concedes 1.94 goals away on average and has an xG against of 1.80, which together suggest Girona will create clear chances and Mallorca is prone to conceding. Additionally, the clean sheet expected rate is only 18% for Girona at home and 6% for Mallorca away, reducing the likelihood of a No Goal outcome. Considering the seasonal 71%/63% BTTS, recent 60%/80% figures and the xG and shot metrics, I assess BTTS - Yes probability at 72% and No at 28%, therefore I back Yes.

Both teams have high rates of matches with more than 1.5 goals: Girona records 82% of such games and Mallorca 88%, which strongly favors Over 1.5. Based on xG: Girona has xG for 1.40 and xG against Mallorca 1.80, yielding 1.60 expected goals for the home side; Mallorca has xG for 1.05 and xG against Girona 1.54, giving 1.30 for the visitors, totaling 2.90 expected goals. Girona averages 12.06 shots per match with 4.59 on target and scores 1.59 goals at home with a 13% conversion rate, while Mallorca concedes 1.94 goals away on average and scores only 0.88 away, which increases the likelihood of goals for the hosts. Season Over 2.5 rates are 59% for Girona and 75% for Mallorca (approx. 65% on average), while Over 3.5 has low support (24% and 19%), therefore the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (I estimate ~90% probability).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1), which I assign a 35% probability. Girona averages 1.4 xG and 1.59 goals scored per home match, while Mallorca concedes 1.8 xG and 1.94 goals per match, giving the home side an offensive edge. A draw at the break seems realistic: Girona averages 0.53 goals scored by half-time and is level at half-time in 35% of matches, while Mallorca averages 0.44 first-half goals and is level at half-time in 31% of games. In second halves the hosts are stronger — Girona scored 7 goals in minutes 61–75 and 9 goals in 76–90, while Mallorca conceded 5 and 9 respectively; the average points earned by home teams in second halves is 1.88 versus 0.56 for away teams, which increases the hosts’ chance of a turnaround after the break. Additionally, Girona win 47% of home matches, while Mallorca have only a 6% away win rate, therefore the X/1 HT/FT scenario is the strongest signal from the data.