Gnistan vs TPS: match statistics

Gnistan sit 3rd in the home table and win 60% of their matches on home soil, while TPS have won just 10% of their away games and lost 50%. At home, the hosts average 2.0 goals per match with an xG of 1.75, whereas TPS score only 0.9 goals away from home and fail to score in 40% of such matches. Gnistan’s superiority is also evident in chance creation: 15.9 shots and 5.7 on target per match compared with 12.6 and 3.9 for the visitors. However, TPS arrive after a solid defensive spell, conceding just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, which increases the likelihood of a closely contested game and a draw. Although Gnistan have conceded 8 goals in their last five appearances, their record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, combined with significantly better home efficiency, points to a home win.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is moderately positive, as Gnistan have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over their last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 80% of those fixtures. TPS have a weaker seasonal attacking average of just 0.9 goals per match, but an xG of 1.51 and 1.4 goals scored per match across their last five appearances point to a genuine chance of finding the net. TPS’s defence has kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their matches this season, while Gnistan score an average of 1.64 goals per match from 4.73 shots on target. The hosts are considerably more reliable defensively, with a 55% clean-sheet rate, which limits the strength of the BTTS angle, but their recent xG against stands at 1.80, while TPS have generated 1.41 xG. Seasonal BTTS figures are 45% for Gnistan and 60% for TPS, so the most likely scenario remains a goal for each team, although without a very strong edge.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals, as Gnistan’s matches have finished with this number of goals in 82% of cases this season, compared with 70% for TPS. The hosts average 1.64 goals per game, while TPS score only 0.90 away from home, limiting the visitors’ baseline scoring potential despite their average xG of 1.51. Gnistan keep a clean sheet in 55% of matches, while TPS fail to score in 40%, making a scenario with limited attacking output from the visitors realistic. Gnistan’s last five matches have been more open, averaging 3.6 goals with 80% finishing Over 2.5, but neither team has recorded more than 3 goals scored or conceded in a match this season, further strengthening the Under 3.5 selection.

Gnistan are clearly stronger in home matches: they win 64% of their games, score an average of 1.64 goals and concede just 0.82, while TPS win only 10% of their away matches and lose 50%. The hosts were leading at the break in 4 of 11 home games (36%), whereas TPS held a half-time lead only once in 10 away matches (10%) and went into the break trailing in as many as 50% of those games. Gnistan’s advantage is also evident in the first half: they score an average of 0.82 goals per match before the break, while TPS’s opponents average 0.70 goals against them in the opening 45 minutes. After the interval, the hosts still look solid, conceding just 0.36 goals on average and keeping a clean sheet in 64% of second halves. The most likely outcome is therefore Gnistan leading at half-time and going on to secure the win, although TPS’s high 40% away-draw rate leaves a significant chance of a draw scenario.