Grêmio vs Santos: match statistics

I predict a home win ('1'), because Grêmio wins 57% of home matches, scores on average 1.57 goals and concedes 0.86 per game, whereas Santos have no away wins (0%), score 1.29 on average and concede 2.00. In the last 5 matches Grêmio’s record is 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, averaging 2.0 points per game; in those five matches the hosts scored 9 and conceded 2. Santos’ last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, 1.6 points per game, with 7 scored and 6 conceded. Regarding quality of chances, Grêmio’s home xG is 1.66 versus xG against 1.42 and they average 5.29 shots on target from 15.29 total shots, while Santos away produce xG 1.43 against xG 1.61 and only 3.43 shots on target from 14 shots, which indicates a home advantage in creating clear opportunities. Defensively the gap is clear: Grêmio have 43% of home matches with a clean sheet, Santos only 14% of away clean sheets and concede 2.0 goals per away game, so I assess probabilities roughly 65% for Grêmio, 25% for a draw and 10% for Santos.

The strongest signal is Santos’ very high season BTTS rate: 86% versus Grêmio’s 56% and the league’s 59%, which increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. In xG terms Santos has xG_for 1.43 against Grêmio’s xG_against 1.25, while Grêmio has xG_for 1.20 against Santos’ xG_against 1.61 — both sides generate ~1.2–1.4 xG and both defenses are relatively vulnerable. Although Grêmio conceded only 2 goals in the last 5 matches (0.4 per match) and has a last5 BTTS rate of 20%, they register 33% clean sheets seasonally versus Santos’ 14%; however their last5 xG_against of 1.74 suggests the low goals conceded may have been ephemeral. Santos scored 7 goals in their last five (1.4 per match) and conceded 6 (1.2), and seasonally they concede 2.0 goals per match and have 71% of matches over 2.5 and 71% over2.5 with BTTS, reinforcing a propensity for matches with goals at both ends. Therefore I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 72% versus No 28%, because Santos’ 86%, the league 59% and the xG setup (1.43 vs 1.25) are the strongest signals in favor of both teams scoring.

I estimate a total of 2.75 goals (Grêmio 1.41, Santos 1.34), calculated as the average of each team’s offensive xG and the opponent’s xG: (1.20 + 1.61)/2 = 1.41 for the home side and (1.43 + 1.25)/2 = 1.34 for the visitors. Both teams frequently exceed 1.5 goals per match — season Over1.5 is 89% for Grêmio and 86% for Santos — therefore I assign Over 1.5 a high 92% probability. The 2.5 line is less clear: season Over2.5 is 44% for Grêmio and 71% for Santos (average 57%), and additionally Santos concedes an average of 2.0 goals per match and in 86% of fixtures both teams score, so I give Over 2.5 a 64% probability. 3.5 goals looks unlikely given the expected 2.75 goals and the fact Grêmio have conceded only 2 goals in the last 5 matches (0.4 avg), hence Under 3.5 at 72%. The best betting signal is Over 1.5 due to strong seasonal rates 89%/86% and the calculated xG pointing to 2.75 goals.

At half-time the safest outcome is a draw: Grêmio were level at the break in 56% of their matches and Santos in 57%, with the hosts leading at the break in 33% of fixtures and trailing in only 11%. Over 90 minutes the favorites are the hosts: Grêmio average 1.56 points per home match versus Santos’ 0.57 points away, and the home win percentage is 44% against 0% for away wins. A second significant factor is the second half – Santos concede on average 1.57 goals after the break, while Grêmio concede 0.56 and score 1.22 goals in second halves; the hosts collected 14 points in second halves versus Santos’ 4 points. As a result the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1), so this outcome has been assigned the highest probability (28%), with the alternative being a home lead at half-time and home win at full-time (1/1) at 23%.