Grenoble Foot 38 vs Metz: match statistics

Metz come into this match with a clearly stronger run of form: they have won 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 16 goals in the process—an average of 3.2 goals per match. Over the same period, Grenoble have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. The visitors opened the current season with a 2:1 victory, while the hosts lost their first match 2:4, highlighting their defensive problems. Metz are also higher in the table, sitting 6th compared with Grenoble in 17th, while their average of 2.4 points from the last five matches is superior to the hosts’ 1.4 points. Metz’s attacking edge and more consistent results trend point towards an away win, although Grenoble’s home advantage increases the likelihood of a closely contested match.

Metz have shown very strong attacking potential in their last five matches, scoring an average of 3.2 goals and recording BTTS - Yes in 80% of games. Grenoble have scored just 1.0 goal per match over the same period, while Metz have conceded an average of 1.0 goal, giving the hosts a realistic route to finding the net. Grenoble’s defence is more vulnerable, having allowed opponents an xG of 1.50 over their last five matches, while Metz’s own xG stood at 1.15. However, the hosts have a weaker recent BTTS record of 40%, and their xG of 0.78 limits confidence in the pick. Nevertheless, Metz’s run of 16 goals scored in five matches clearly increases the likelihood of the visitors scoring, making a Grenoble goal slightly more likely than a No Goal outcome for either side.

Metz are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 3.2 goals over their last 5 matches, with 1.15 xG, while Grenoble have conceded 1.2 goals per game during this period. At the same time, the hosts have clear limitations in attack, as their average over their last 5 appearances is just 1.0 goal and 0.78 xG. Grenoble’s matches have recently been much tighter than Metz’s form would suggest: only 20% of their last 5 games finished with Over 2.5 goals, compared with 100% for their opponents. Metz concede an average of 1.0 goal per match, while their average xG against over their last five appearances is just 0.93, limiting Grenoble’s potential for a high-scoring game. The projected total of 2.50 goals indicates that the most likely scenario is a result falling below 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Metz win at full-time, as Grenoble have been level at the break in each of their last five matches, scoring and conceding just 0.4 goals on average before half-time. Metz have not been trailing at half-time in any of their last five matches, drawing in 60% of cases and leading in 40%, with an average of 1.2 goals scored in the first half. The visitors’ advantage grows after the interval: Metz have averaged 2.0 goals in the second halves of their last five appearances, compared with Grenoble’s 0.6. The visitors have won four of their last five matches and scored an average of 3.2 goals per game, while the hosts have recorded two wins and two defeats, scoring just 1.0 goal per match. A cautious, balanced opening followed by Metz’s superior attacking quality after the break creates the strongest signal for the X/2 HT/FT outcome.