Greuther Fürth vs Heidenheim: match statistics

Greuther Fürth hold a slight attacking edge at home: they average 2 goals per match with an xG of 1.62, while Heidenheim score an average of 1 goal away from home and have an xG of 1.08. The hosts also register more shots on target—6 per match compared with 2 for the visitors—which could prove decisive given both teams’ defensive frailties. Heidenheim made the better overall start to the season, winning 2 of 3 matches and scoring 10 goals, but they have conceded as many as 19 goals in their last five games. Both teams lost and conceded an average of 4 goals in their only matches played at home and away respectively, so an open game with goals at both ends should be expected. Fürth’s higher quality of chances created and home advantage marginally favour a home win.

BTTS - Yes is a very strong scenario, as both teams have scored in 100% of their matches so far, compared with the league average of 56%. Greuther Fürth averages 4.5 goals and 8 shots on target per home match, while Heidenheim concedes as many as 4.0 goals away from home. The visitors should also create chances, as Fürth allows opponents an xG of 2.16, while Heidenheim has averaged 2.8 goals across its last five matches. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, while BTTS has landed in 80% of Fürth’s last five matches and in all of Heidenheim’s matches. Even with weaker away attacking output, averaging 1.0 goal in this fixture, the very low defensive efficiency of both sides clearly increases the likelihood that each team will score at least once.

Both teams have a very clear goals profile: Over 1.5 goals, Over 2.5 goals and Over 3.5 goals have landed in 100% of their league matches so far. In their last five games, Fürth averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Heidenheim scored 2.8 goals but allowed opponents as many as 3.8. The underlying chance-creation data also supports a high-scoring game, with average xG from the last five matches standing at 1.71 for the hosts and 1.78 for the visitors, alongside xG conceded of 1.65 and 1.86 respectively. Fürth averages 24 shots and 8 shots on target at home, while Heidenheim has failed to keep a clean sheet, as have the hosts. The strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as it requires only two goals, while the data for both teams points to a clearly higher expected total of 3.50 goals.

Greuther Fürth hold a clear advantage in the home data: they average 4.5 goals, 24 shots and 8 shots on target, while Heidenheim record 1.0 goal and 2 shots on target away from home. The hosts have won 100% of their home matches, whereas the visitors have lost 100% of their away games, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per match. At half-time, Fürth were leading in 50% of their home matches and scored an average of 1.5 goals, while Heidenheim were behind at the break in every away fixture, failing to score and conceding 3.0 goals on average. The quality of chances also favours the hosts, with an average xG of 2.43 compared with 1.08 for their opponents. Heidenheim can look more threatening across the broader sample of their last five matches, but they concede as many as 3.8 goals per game in that period, so the most likely scenario remains a Fürth lead at the break followed by victory at the final whistle (1/1).