Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg: match statistics

Nürnberg sit 2nd in the table, while Greuther Fürth are ninth, and the difference is reflected in their current points tally: the visitors won their league match 3:0, whereas the hosts drew 1:1. Nürnberg remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 4 wins and 1 draw, with 22 goals scored and only 4 conceded. Over the same period, Fürth won 2 matches, drew once and suffered 2 defeats, scoring 7 goals and conceding 4. The visitors have averaged 4.4 goals per match across their last five outings, clearly outperforming the hosts’ attacking output of 1.4 goals per game. Nürnberg’s solid defence, which kept a clean sheet in the opening match of the season, combined with their significantly stronger run of results, points towards an away win, although the local nature of the rivalry increases the likelihood of a draw.

The strongest argument for both teams to score is Nürnberg’s current attacking form, with the team averaging 4.4 goals across its last five matches and recording an xG of 2.62. Greuther Fürth also has solid grounds to find the net: its average xG over the last five games stands at 1.76, while Nürnberg conceded an average of 0.8 goals per match during this period. Both defences allowed opponents chances worth at least 0.7 and 1.3 xG respectively, reducing the likelihood of a clean sheet. The BTTS rate across the last five matches is 40% for Fürth and 60% for Nürnberg, while the high league average of 67% further supports the scenario in which both teams score at least once.

The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals, as the league average is as high as 3.44 goals and 67% of matches exceed the 2.5-goal line. Nürnberg are in excellent offensive form: they have scored an average of 4.4 goals in their last 5 matches, with an average xG of 2.62. Over the same period, Greuther Fürth conceded just 0.8 goals per game, but allowed opponents an average xG of 1.30, giving the visitors a realistic chance of finding the net. In their last 5 appearances, the hosts generated 1.76 xG, while Nürnberg’s defence allowed opponents just 0.70 xG, making 2-3 goals more likely than a very high-scoring game. Even under a cautious assumption, the projected total of 3.00 goals provides a clear edge over the 1.5 line.

Nürnberg are in significantly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, remain unbeaten, and have averaged 4.4 goals per game, while Greuther Fürth have won only 2 matches and lost 2. The visitors have held a lead at the break in each of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2. Fürth were level at half-time in as many as 60% of those matches, but scored only 0.8 goals on average, which limits their chances of stopping their in-form opponents. After the break, Nürnberg continue to show a clear attacking advantage, averaging 2.6 goals compared with Fürth’s 0.6. The most likely scenario is therefore for the visitors to take the lead before half-time and hold on to it until the final whistle.