Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils: match statistics
Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Grobiņa played BFC Daugavpils in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 2 May 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Grobiņa: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. BFC Daugavpils: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Grobiņa scores 0.56 and concedes 1.11 goals per match. BFC Daugavpils scores 1.33 and concedes 1.56. League average: 2.83 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Grobiņa 33%, BFC Daugavpils 56%. Over 2.5: Grobiņa 11%, BFC Daugavpils 44%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
BFC Daugavpils has higher xG: 1.49 vs 1.01. Grobiņa: 8.2 shots per match, BFC Daugavpils: 11.9.
Match halves
Grobiņa: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.22. BFC Daugavpils: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.78.
Goals by minute
Grobiņa: 0-15 (1 goals). BFC Daugavpils: 46-60 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.83 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 3-0-2. Average goals 3.40, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Grobiņa have been unable to score at home — averaging 0 goals per game with 100% of home matches without a goal; they average 5.25 shots per game, 1.25 on target, and their home xG is 0.67 versus opponents’ xG 1.99, translating to a home goal difference of -7. BFC Daugavpils arrive in better form: 7 goals in the last 5 fixtures, 3 wins in those 5 matches and an average of 2 points per game; away they record 1.75 goals per game with 10 shots and 4 on target. Chance quality also favors the visitors — away xG for Daugavpils is 1.21 versus 0.67 for the hosts, and shot conversion is 18% for Daugavpils versus 0% for Grobiņa, increasing their likelihood of scoring. Defensively both teams are exposed: hosts concede 1.75 goals at home on average, visitors concede 2.75 away, and away matches average 4.5 goals, so I expect an open game with goals. Considering Grobiņa’s 0.4 points average over the last 5 matches versus BFC Daugavpils’ 2.0 and the hosts’ 100% of matches without a goal, I predict an away win and estimate their chances at around 75%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BFC Daugavpils has a season BTTS rate of 100% and averages 1.75 goals scored with 2.75 conceded, strongly indicating Goal/Goal outcomes in their matches. Grobiņa has a season BTTS of 20% and averages 1.0 goals scored, but BTTS has risen to 40% in the last 5 matches and the home side were scoring only 0.4 goals on average while conceding 1.4, so they have recently been more prone to letting goals in. Season xG shows 1.71 for Grobiņa versus 1.21 for BFC, however recent xG favors the visitors (1.8 vs 0.95), suggesting BFC creates more chances in form. Additionally, the visitors’ shot conversion is 18% versus 7% for the hosts, the league BTTS is 60%, and the visitors have 0% clean sheets this season compared to 40% CS for the hosts, therefore the strongest signal from the data points to a BTTS - Yes scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Calculated xG indicates 1.78 xG for Grobiņa and 1.21 xG for BFC Daugavpils, totaling 2.99 expected goals (offensive xG and opponent defensive xG averages: (1.71+1.85)/2 and (1.21+1.21)/2). A Poisson model with μ=2.99 yields P(Over 1.5)≈80%, P(Over 2.5)≈58% and P(Over 3.5)≈35%, so the strongest signal is Over 2.5. Season data support this: BFC away have 75% of matches over 2.5 and 100% BTTS, while Grobiņa at home have only 20% Over 2.5 and 40% clean sheets. Grobiņa average 13.4 shots with 5.6 on target, and BFC 10 shots with a high conversion rate of 18%, increasing the chance of converting chances. Therefore I recommend Over 2.5 as the best line — a moderate edge based on xG 2.99 and BFC’s 75% away Over 2.5 rate.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Seasonal statistics favor the home side: Grobiņa has a 60% win rate and a higher xG (1.71) than BFC Daugavpils (1.21), while conceding fewer expected goals (xGA 1.21 vs 1.85), indicating superior game control by the hosts. At Half-Time Grobiņa led in 40% of matches and were level in 60%, with an average of 0.6 goals scored by HT and a zero conceded HT average (concededAVGHT_home 0.0), showing first-half stability for the hosts. Matches tend to open up after the break: the average number of goals in away second halves is 3.25 (AVG_2hg_away 3.25) and away teams concede on average 2.0 goals after the break (conceded_2hg_avg_away 2.0), while the hosts produce more shots on target (5.6 vs 4.0), which supports potential turnarounds post-break. Considering the 60% HT draws for the hosts, the xG advantage of 1.71 vs 1.21 and Grobiņa’s seasonal 60% win rate versus the visitors’ 25%, the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a home win at Full-Time (X/1) estimated at 34%. At the same time, the hosts’ lower shot conversion (7% vs the visitors’ 18%) and the visitors’ better form in the last five matches (60% wins) increase the likelihood of turnarounds after the break, hence relatively higher probabilities for X/2 (14%) and 1/2 (11%) as alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Grobiņa | BFC Daugavpils | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
BFC Daugavpils is 400% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Grobiņa · 2 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
BFC Daugavpils is 138% better for: goals scored per match.
0.56 goals / match - Grobiņa · 1.33 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa is 41% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.11 goals / match - Grobiņa · 1.56 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa scores in 56% of matches (5 of 9 matches), while BFC Daugavpils keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
BFC Daugavpils scores in 78% of matches (7 of 9 matches), while Grobiņa keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Grobiņa
Over / Under - BFC Daugavpils
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
BFC Daugavpils is 41% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.11 pts / match - Grobiņa · 1.56 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Grobiņa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
BFC Daugavpils - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.9 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Grobiņa | Liga | BFC Daugavpils | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.67 | 2.83 | • 2.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 60% | ▼ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 11% | 51% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 22% | 20% | ▲ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 77% | ▼ 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 85% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Grobiņa 3 - 0 - 2 BFC Daugavpils. Average goals 3.40, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils?
The Virsliga match finished Grobiņa 1:1 BFC Daugavpils. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Grobiņa and BFC Daugavpils?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Grobiņa won 3, BFC Daugavpils won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils?
Grobiņa score 0.56 goals per game on average and BFC Daugavpils 1.33. The Virsliga average is 2.83 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Grobiņa's matches and 56% of BFC Daugavpils's.
What form are Grobiņa and BFC Daugavpils in?
Over the last 5 games Grobiņa have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and BFC Daugavpils 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils?
The statistical background for Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.