Grobiņa vs Super Nova: match statistics
Grobiņa vs Super Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Grobiņa played Super Nova in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 9 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Grobiņa: 2-1-1, 1.75 points/match. Super Nova: 2-1-1, 1.75 points/match.
Goal statistics
Grobiņa scores 0.75 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. Super Nova scores 1.50 and concedes 1.25. League average: 2.65 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Grobiņa 25%, Super Nova 100%. Over 2.5: Grobiņa 0%, Super Nova 75%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Super Nova has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.01. Grobiņa: 7.8 shots per match, Super Nova: 11.8.
Match halves
Grobiņa: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.25. Super Nova: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Grobiņa: 0-15 (1 goals). Super Nova: 16-30 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.65 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 0-4-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win ('2'). Super Nova clearly dominates in chance quality and efficiency: on average 1.67 goals per away match with 1.5 xG and 5.33 on-target shots, while Grobiņa at home averages 0 goals, 0.67 xG and only 1 on-target shot per match. Grobiņa have failed to score in 100% of their home fixtures and have a 0% home win rate, conceding on average 2.00 goals per match at home; meanwhile Super Nova concedes 1.33 goals on average away and posts a 67% away win rate. The gap in xG (1.5 vs 0.67), shot volume (11 vs 6) and conversion rate (15% vs 0%) highlights the visitors’ superiority in chance quality and attacking efficiency. Although both teams average 2 points per match over the last 5 games, the offensive and defensive metrics favor Super Nova, so I give them the higher probability of winning.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The seasonal signal is strong: the percentage of matches with both teams scoring is 100% for Grobiņa and 100% for Super Nova, versus a league average BTTS of 56%. However, analysis of the last 5 matches shows a divergence: Grobiņa has BTTS only 20% and scored 4 goals in 5 matches (0.8 avg), while Super Nova has BTTS 80% and scored 9 goals in 5 matches (1.8 avg), which increases the likelihood of at least one goal from the away side. Looking at xG and efficiency, Grobiņa generates on average xG 1.65 per match, and Super Nova concedes xG against 1.37; at the same time Super Nova has a higher shot conversion (15%) than Grobiņa (7%), so both teams create chances and the visitors are more efficient. Additionally Super Nova scores more goals seasonally (1.67 avg), whereas Grobiņa concedes on average 1.0 goals per match, which is another argument in favor of an away goal; nevertheless Grobiņa’s low efficiency and its 20% BTTS in the last 5 matches weaken the signal. Overall I assess that the dominance of signals (seasonal 100% BTTS for both teams and Super Nova’s strong scoring form) gives a higher probability of BTTS = Yes, therefore I propose 63% for 'Yes' and 37% for 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I calculated expected goals as the average of one team’s attack xG and the other’s xG against: Grobiņa’s attack xG 1.65 and xG against Super Nova 1.37 give 1.51 for the home side, while Super Nova’s attack xG 1.50 and xG against Grobiņa 1.80 give 1.65 for the away side; total 3.16. Both teams have 100% of season matches with both teams scoring, and the season percentage of matches over 1.5 goals is 100% for both sides, so I rate Over 1.5 very highly at 95%. Super Nova scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 1.8) and had 80% of matches over 2.5, and the combined expected goals 3.16 exceeds the league average 2.71 by 0.45, which lifts the probability of Over 2.5 to 75%. This contrasts with Grobiņa, who despite 14 shots per match has a low conversion rate of 7% and a season average of 1.0 goal, so there is a risk of low home productivity that dampens the chances of 4+ goals. In summary, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (my play); Over 2.5 is also likely (75%), while Over 3.5 I rate lower at 35% due to both teams having 0% season Over 3.5 and the expected 3.16 goals being below the 3.5 threshold.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Super Nova are the favorites: they average 2.0 points per match and have won 67% of games, while Grobiņa average 1.0 PPG and have 0% wins (seasonPPG_away=2.0, winPercentage_away=67.0; seasonPPG_home=1.0, winPercentage_home=0.0). At Half-Time the visitors’ lead is pronounced — hosts score an average of 0.0 goals by the break, visitors 1.33 (scoredAVGHT_home=0.0 vs scoredAVGHT_away=1.33) and Super Nova led at the break in 67% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_away=67.0). The visitors are also more clinical in finishing (shot conversion rate 15% versus the hosts’ 7%; shot_conversion_rate_away=15.0 vs shot_conversion_rate_home=7.0), despite similar xG (xG_for_avg_home=1.65 vs xG_for_avg_away=1.5), which suggests the advantage will hold. Both teams regularly score (seasonBTTSPercentage_home=100.0, seasonBTTSPercentage_away=100.0), so I expect goals on both sides, but the strongest signal is Super Nova leading at Half-Time and winning by Full-Time. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 outcome (49%), with smaller weights for 2/X (14%) and X/2 (12%) scenarios reflecting possible second-half equalization.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Grobiņa | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 45% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Super Nova is 100% better for: goals scored per match.
0.75 goals / match - Grobiņa · 1.5 goals / match - Super Nova
Grobiņa is 67% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.75 goals / match - Grobiņa · 1.25 goals / match - Super Nova
Grobiņa scores in 75% of matches (3 of 4 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 4 matches).
Super Nova scores in 100% of matches (4 of 4 matches), while Grobiņa keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Grobiņa
Over / Under - Super Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Super Nova is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Grobiņa · 1.5 pts / match - Super Nova
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Grobiņa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 50% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 75% |
| No goal | 50% | 75% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 25% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 25% |
| No goal | 50% | 50% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Grobiņa
Super Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Grobiņa | Liga | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.50 | 2.65 | ▲ 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 25% | 57% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 0% | 48% | ▲ 75% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 22% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 75% | 87% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 78% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Grobiņa 0 - 4 - 0 Super Nova. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Grobiņa vs Super Nova?
The Virsliga match finished Grobiņa 0:1 Super Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Grobiņa and Super Nova?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Grobiņa won 0, Super Nova won 0 and 4 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Grobiņa vs Super Nova?
Grobiņa score 0.75 goals per game on average and Super Nova 1.50. The Virsliga average is 2.65 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Grobiņa's matches and 100% of Super Nova's.
What form are Grobiņa and Super Nova in?
Over the last 5 games Grobiņa have a 2-1-1 record (1.75 points per game) and Super Nova 2-1-1 (1.75 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Grobiņa vs Super Nova?
The statistical background for Grobiņa vs Super Nova — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.