Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard: match statistics

Groningen have collected 9 points from their last 5 matches, winning 3 games, while Fortuna Sittard have managed just 4 points over the same period and suffered 3 defeats. The hosts have won 100% of their home matches so far, averaging 2 goals from 16 shots and 59% possession. Fortuna also average 2 goals away from home, but create significantly fewer high-quality chances: their xG stands at 1.11 compared with Groningen’s 1.64. The key argument in favor of the hosts is the visitors’ defensive weakness, with Fortuna allowing opponents an away xG of 2.51 and conceding an average of 2 goals per match. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, making a Groningen win with both teams scoring the most likely outcome.

The BTTS tip is supported by both teams’ very strong goal-scoring profile: Groningen and Fortuna Sittard have not kept a single clean sheet so far, while their average goals conceded stand at 1.5 and 2.0 respectively. Fortuna recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches this season, compared with 50% for Groningen, while both teams reached 60% across their last five games. The hosts have recently averaged 1.6 goals per match, while Fortuna have averaged 1.2, while conceding 1.8 and 2.0 goals respectively — a combination that strongly favours goals at both ends. Chance-quality metrics also point to an open game, as Groningen have allowed opponents an xG of 1.64 over their last five matches, while Fortuna have allowed as much as 2.31. An additional argument is the league-wide BTTS rate of 71%, making it more likely that both teams will score at least one goal. In other words, BTTS - Yes is favoured, while BTTS - No would mean that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, with both conceding in 100% of their matches so far. Groningen score an average of 1.5 goals and concede 1.5, while Fortuna Sittard average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. Across their last five appearances, the teams recorded average totals of 3.4 and 3.2 goals respectively, with the 2.5 line being surpassed in 60% of matches for each side. In addition, the average xG of opponents against Groningen and Fortuna stands at a very high 2.81 and 2.51 respectively, indicating that both defences are vulnerable to chance creation. Over 1.5 goals has the strongest support, as at least two goals were scored in 100% of matches involving both teams, with 3.50 goals projected for the match overall.

Groningen are in clearly better recent form, having won 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 win and 3 defeats for Fortuna. The hosts held a lead at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals before half-time, compared with Fortuna’s 0.8. After the break, Fortuna have conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last five appearances, while Groningen have avoided defeat in this period of the match in 60% of their games. Groningen’s advantage is further supported by their average of 1.6 goals scored in their last five matches, compared with 1.2 for the visitors, as well as a 60% win rate versus 20%. However, both defences allow plenty of chances, which limits confidence in the selection. Nevertheless, the most consistent scenario is for the hosts to lead at half-time and secure the win at full-time: 1/1.