Groningen vs NEC: match statistics
Groningen vs NEC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Groningen played NEC in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 10 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Groningen: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. NEC: 1-4-0, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Groningen scores 1.41 and concedes 1.34 goals per match. NEC scores 2.31 and concedes 1.56. League average: 3.17 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Groningen 53%, NEC 81%. Over 2.5: Groningen 53%, NEC 72%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
NEC has higher xG: 1.93 vs 1.75. Groningen: 16.0 shots per match, NEC: 16.6.
Match halves
Groningen: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.81. NEC: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 1.44.
Goals by minute
Groningen: 76-90+ (13 goals). NEC: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.17 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
NEC are the favorites in this matchup: the visitors sit 3rd in the table versus the hosts in 10th and have scored 74 goals this season compared to Groningen's 45. As an away side NEC average 2.19 goals per game and 6.94 shots on target with a 14% conversion rate, while Groningen at home average 1.56 goals per game, 5.31 shots on target and a 9% conversion. Defence, however, gives Groningen a real edge – the hosts concede only 1.06 goals per game at home and keep a clean sheet in 38% of matches, whereas NEC concede 1.63 goals away and have only 6% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Groningen has averaged 1.4 points per game (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), and NEC 1.2 points (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss), indicating a slight home advantage in form. Considering NEC's superior goal tally (74 vs 45), the low percentage of matches in which NEC failed to score (6% vs Groningen's 25%), slightly higher away xG (1.9 vs 1.79) and better efficiency, I predict a NEC win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS - Yes is favored here given the high season-long rates of both teams seeing goals: Groningen 75% and NEC 88%, versus a league average of 63%. Both sides create and concede: Groningen scores 2.44 goals per game with xG 1.97, NEC 2.19 goals with xG 1.90; meanwhile they concede 1.5 (Groningen) and 1.63 (NEC) goals per game, which supports goal exchange. Additionally Groningen has 81% of matches over 2.5 goals, NEC 63%, and the league averages 3.17 goals per game — with 6.38 and 6.94 shots on target respectively they can produce genuine chances. A weaker counter-signal is recent form: last 5 rounds Groningen has only 40% BTTS versus 80% for NEC, but NEC’s low clean sheet rate (6%) and Groningen’s near absence of scoreless matches (0% this season) reduce the probability of a no-goal game. Considering strong seasonal BTTS metrics (75% and 88%), xG near 2.0 and low clean sheet odds (25% and 6%), I select BTTS = Yes as the most likely outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project a total of approximately 3.25 goals: Groningen ~1.66 and NEC ~1.59, calculated as average attacking xG and opposing xG (Groningen xG_for 1.97 vs xG_against_away 1.35; NEC xG_for 1.90 vs xG_against_home 1.29). A Poisson model on a combined xG=3.25 yields probabilities of >1.5 ≈83.5%, >2.5 ≈63.1% and >3.5 ≈40.9%. Seasonal metrics reinforce the Over signal: season Over1.5 is 100% for Groningen and 94% for NEC, Over2.5 is 81%/63%, and both teams have high BTTS rates of 75% and 88% respectively. The last 5 matches show some variance (Groningen scored 8 goals in 5 =1.6 per match and Over2.5 60%, NEC 6 goals =1.2 and Over2.5 20%), so I adjust final probabilities to Over1.5=92%, Over2.5=66%, Over3.5=46%. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: over, line: 1.5) based on the combined xG 3.25 and seasonal 100%/94% rates for exceeding 1.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
By half-time the statistics indicate a goal-heavy match: the home side scores on average 0.88 goals by the break, the visitors 0.88 (≈1.76 combined), and in 94% of matches both teams had at least one goal by half-time. Groningen is stronger after the break — they score on average 1.56 goals in the second half and win that half in 63% of home matches, whereas NEC scores 1.31 after the break and wins the second half in 38% of cases. Additionally, the home xG at home is 1.97 with xG against 1.29, while NEC has xG 1.90 with xG against 1.35, showing a small but meaningful offensive advantage for Groningen. In the last 5 matches Groningen led at the break in 40% of games versus 20% for NEC, and the home HTPPG in the last 5 is 1.6 compared to 0.8 for the visitors, so the scenario of a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1) appears strongest.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Groningen | NEC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
NEC is 64% better for: goals scored per match.
1.41 goals / match - Groningen · 2.31 goals / match - NEC
Groningen is 16% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.34 goals / match - Groningen · 1.56 goals / match - NEC
Groningen scores in 78% of matches (25 of 32 matches), while NEC keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 32 matches).
NEC scores in 97% of matches (31 of 32 matches), while Groningen keeps a clean sheet in 31% (10 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Groningen
Over / Under - NEC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Groningen - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
NEC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 100% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): +11 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Groningen
NEC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| Groningen | Liga | NEC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.75 | 3.17 | ▲ 3.88 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 53% | 63% | ▲ 81% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 61% | ▲ 72% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 31% | 20% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 66% | 81% | ▲ 94% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 91% | 84% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Groningen 0 - 0 - 1 NEC. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Groningen vs NEC?
The Eredivisie match finished Groningen 2:1 NEC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Groningen vs NEC?
Groningen score 1.41 goals per game on average and NEC 2.31. The Eredivisie average is 3.17 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Groningen's matches and 81% of NEC's.
What form are Groningen and NEC in?
Over the last 5 games Groningen have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and NEC 1-4-0 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Groningen vs NEC?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Groningen vs NEC: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.