Grosseto vs Perugia: match statistics

Grosseto remain unbeaten this season, recording 2 wins and 2 draws, while Perugia have already lost 1 of their 4 matches. At home, the hosts create significantly more danger, averaging 18 shots and 7 on target per game, compared with Perugia’s 12 attempts and 4 on target away from home. The quality of chances also favors Grosseto, who average 1.97 xG while allowing opponents just 0.84 xG; Perugia record 1.41 and 1.72 respectively. The visitors concede as many as 2.5 goals per away game, have kept no clean sheets and failed to score in 50% of such matches. Grosseto score an average of 1.5 goals at home and concede just 0.5, so the hosts’ advantage should translate into a win.

The signal for goals from both sides is moderately positive: both Grosseto and Perugia recorded BTTS - Yes in 60% of their last 5 matches, compared with the league average of 53%. During this period, the hosts scored and conceded 1.2 goals per match, while the visitors scored 1.2 and conceded 1.6, which supports a Goal/Goal outcome. Perugia are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league and concede an average of 2.5 goals to their opponents, while Grosseto score an average of 1.5 goals at home. The risk to this pick is Grosseto's more solid defence, conceding only 0.5 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their games. However, Perugia's xG of 1.41 and an average of 4 shots on target give the visitors a realistic chance of scoring. Therefore, the scenario in which each team scores at least one goal is slightly more likely.

Grosseto score an average of 1.5 goals at home, while Perugia concede as many as 2.5 goals per away match, clearly strengthening the hosts’ scoring potential. At the same time, Grosseto’s average xG stands at 1.39, whereas Perugia allow opponents 1.72 xG, suggesting that the home side should create high-quality chances. In their last five matches, both teams scored 1.2 goals per game, while Perugia conceded an average of 1.6 goals, with 80% of the visitors’ matches featuring at least three goals. Both teams average around 4 shots on target per match, and in their last five games, both teams recorded a goal scored by both sides in 60% of cases. The strongest option is Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of Perugia’s defensive weakness and current chance-creation metrics gives a high probability of at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Grosseto victory at the final whistle. The hosts were level at the break in 100% of their home matches so far, while Perugia were level at half-time in 50% of their away fixtures; in their last five appearances, the visitors shared the points at the break in as many as 60% of matches. After the interval, Grosseto’s advantage increases significantly: the team averages 1.0 goal scored and none conceded, whereas Perugia concedes an average of 2.5 goals in second halves. The hosts have won 100% of their home matches, while Perugia have failed to win any away fixture and have conceded an average of 2.5 goals per match on the road. Although the teams’ attacking xG figures are similar—1.39 for Grosseto compared with 1.41 for Perugia—the visitors’ defence allows an average xG of 1.72, further strengthening the prospect of a decisive home goal after the break.