Guabirá vs Nacional Potosí: match statistics
Guabirá vs Nacional Potosí: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Guabirá played Nacional Potosí in LFPB (Bolivia). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Venue: Estadio Gilberto Parada. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Guabirá: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Nacional Potosí: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Guabirá scores 1.43 and concedes 2.57 goals per match. Nacional Potosí scores 1.33 and concedes 1.17. League average: 3.00 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Guabirá 57%, Nacional Potosí 67%. Over 2.5: Guabirá 100%, Nacional Potosí 50%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
Guabirá has higher xG: 1.66 vs 1.36. Guabirá: 16.0 shots per match, Nacional Potosí: 12.5.
Match halves
Guabirá: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.71. Nacional Potosí: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 1.17.
Goals by minute
Guabirá: 76-90+ (4 goals). Nacional Potosí: 61-75 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
LFPB: 3.00 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1) — Guabirá holds an offensive edge at home: they average 2.0 goals per home match versus Nacional Potosí’s 1.5 goals on the road, and the home xG is 1.91 compared to the visitors’ 1.42. Home side averages 18 shots and 6.67 on target per home game, while Nacional Potosí averages 13.25 shots and 4.5 on target away, translating into a materially higher volume of scoring opportunities for Guabirá. The risk lies in Guabirá’s defense — they conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game), whereas Nacional Potosí conceded 7 (1.4 per game), so the match could be open and high-scoring. Additionally, away xG against for Nacional Potosí is 1.97, meaning visitors allow opponents to create dangerous chances, even though they concede 1.5 goals on average away. Considering Guabirá’s xG advantage (1.91 vs 1.42), superior shot volume and the fact both teams have 0% clean sheets, I estimate probabilities at approximately 55% for the home win, 20% for a draw and 25% for the away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Nacional Potosí has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75% and BTTS occurred in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Guabirá has 50% seasonally and 60% in their last 5, which favors a both-teams-to-score scenario. xG data shows Nacional Potosí generates xG 1.42 with xG against 1.97 (conceding many chances), and Guabirá has xG for 1.24 and xG against 1.4, which together suggest an exchange of chances and potential goals from both sides. Shot stats (4.5 on target and 13.25 shots per match for Nacional Potosí versus 2.5 on target and 11.0 shots for Guabirá) strengthen the argument that the visitors particularly have chances to score. Although Guabirá has a seasonal clean sheet rate of 50% and have scored 10 and conceded 18 goals this season, in the last 5 matches they averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, so the defense has been recently vulnerable. Considering the league BTTS level of 62% and the strong 75–80% signals on Nacional Potosí’s side, I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 75% versus 25% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG I expect 1.61 goals for Guabirá (xG_for_home 1.24 and xG_against_away 1.97 → average 1.61) and 1.41 for Nacional Potosí (xG_for_away 1.42 and xG_against_home 1.40 → 1.41), totalling 3.02 goals, above the league average 2.96. In the last 5 matches Guabirá scored 8 and conceded 11 goals (avg 1.6 and 2.2), while Nacional has 5 scored and 7 conceded (1.0 and 1.4), indicating open matches with goal opportunities. Seasonal metrics show 100% of matches with >0.5 goals for both teams; Nacional has 100% of matches with >1.5 goals and Guabirá 50% (seasonOver15_away 100%, seasonOver15_home 50%); additionally Guabirá had 100% of last 5 matches with over 2.5 despite 0% season over2.5 — this suggests increased offensive activity from the home side. Chance metrics also support an over outcome: shotsOnTarget_away 4.5 vs home 2.5, shots_avg 13.25 vs 11.0 and combined xG_for 2.66 (1.24+1.42). Therefore I recommend Over 2.5 as the strongest signal (I rate Over 1.5 92%, Over 2.5 70%, Over 3.5 28%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The first half is most likely to finish level: the home team were drawing at the break in 100.0% of their matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0), while the visitors did so in 50.0% (drawingAtHTPercentage_away = 50.0). In the second half I lean toward a home victory — Guabirá scores on average 1.5 goals after the break (AVG_2hg_home = 1.5) and concedes only 0.5 (conceded_2hg_avg_home = 0.5), yielding a +1.0 balance (gd_2hg_home = 1.0). Additionally, the home side average 2.0 season points per game versus 1.0 for the away team (seasonPPG_home = 2.0 vs seasonPPG_away = 1.0) and win 50.0% of matches compared to 25.0% for visitors, so they have a greater propensity to convert a lead at the break into a full-time win. The away team have higher attacking xG (1.42 vs 1.24) and more shots on target (4.5 vs 2.5), but their average second-half goals conceded is higher (conceded_2hg_avg_away = 1.0), which weakens the case for their turnaround after the break. For these reasons I identify the strongest signal as Half-Time/Full-Time: draw at the break and home win (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Guabirá | Nacional Potosí | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nacional Potosí is 25% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Guabirá · 1 pts / match - Nacional Potosí
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Guabirá is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.43 goals / match - Guabirá · 1.33 goals / match - Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí is 120% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.57 goals / match - Guabirá · 1.17 goals / match - Nacional Potosí
Guabirá scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Nacional Potosí keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
Nacional Potosí scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Guabirá keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Guabirá
Over / Under - Nacional Potosí
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Guabirá is 10% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.29 pts / match - Guabirá · 1.17 pts / match - Nacional Potosí
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Guabirá - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nacional Potosí - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Guabirá
Nacional Potosí
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (LFPB).
Teams vs league
| Guabirá | Liga | Nacional Potosí | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.00 | 3.00 | ▼ 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 57% | 63% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 100% | 61% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 23% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 70% | ▼ 33% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 85% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- GuabiráRed cardAndrés Ruiz Julien
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Guabirá 1 - 0 - 1 Nacional Potosí. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Guabirá vs Nacional Potosí?
The LFPB match finished Guabirá 2:1 Nacional Potosí. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Guabirá and Nacional Potosí?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Guabirá won 1, Nacional Potosí won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Guabirá vs Nacional Potosí?
Guabirá score 1.43 goals per game on average and Nacional Potosí 1.33. The LFPB average is 3.00 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Guabirá's matches and 67% of Nacional Potosí's.
What form are Guabirá and Nacional Potosí in?
Over the last 5 games Guabirá have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Nacional Potosí 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Guabirá vs Nacional Potosí?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Guabirá vs Nacional Potosí: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.