Guadalupe vs Pérez Zeledón: match statistics

Guadalupe holds a slight offensive edge at home: they average 1.25 goals per home match with a conversion rate of 10%, while Pérez Zeledón manage only 0.94 goals on the road with an 8% conversion. In their last five matches Guadalupe have scored 3 and conceded 7 (0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded per game), whereas Pérez have 8 scored and 14 conceded (1.6 scored and 2.8 conceded per game), highlighting the visitors’ defensive issues. In terms of quality of chances, the hosts have a higher home xG (1.5) than the visitors’ away xG (1.42), with xG against of 1.57 for Guadalupe and 2.0 for Pérez, meaning the visitors allow more high-value opportunities. Additionally, Guadalupe have a lower percentage of scoreless matches (38% vs 44%), a higher clean sheet rate (25% vs 13%) and a similar number of shots per game (12.31 vs 12.19), which together suggest greater home efficiency. Considering these figures and recent form (Guadalupe last 5: 1W, 2D, 2L; Pérez: 1W, 1D, 3L), the projection is a home win.

I predict BTTS - Yes is more likely. Guadalupe posts a season BTTS of 82%, scoring on average 1.65 and conceding 1.47 (attack xG 1.55 vs xG against 1.57). Pérez Zeledón has a season BTTS of 50%, averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.88 conceded (attack xG 1.42, xG against 2.0), but failed to score in 44% of matches, which weakens the BTTS signal consistency. In the last 5 matches Pérez scored 8 and conceded 14 (1.6 and 2.8 avg), while Guadalupe scored 3 and conceded 7 (0.6 and 1.4); over that period BTTS was 40% for the home side and 60% for the away side, indicating mixed but not dismissive away tendencies. Additionally, low clean sheet rates — 12% for Guadalupe and 13% for Pérez — combined with the home side’s higher shots on target (5.18 vs 4.13) and superior conversion (13% vs 8%) suggest both teams can create and convert chances. Considering the stronger signals for Yes (home season 82%, low clean sheets 12–13%, and similar attack xG 1.55 vs 1.42), I assign a 68% probability to BTTS - Yes and 32% to No.

Aggregate xG points to a high-scoring affair: Guadalupe has an attacking xG of 1.55, while Pérez Zeledón concedes 2.00 xG on average, which translates to ~1.78 expected goals for the home side; Pérez Zeledón’s xG_for is 1.42, and the home xG_against of 1.57 yields ~1.50 for the visitors, total ≈3.28. A Poisson model on this total (3.28) prices over 1.5 at ≈84%, over 2.5 at ≈64% and over 3.5 at ≈42%. Season stats corroborate this: homes feature over 1.5 in 88% of matches, away sides in 75%, and over 2.5 occurs seasonally 59%/63%; in the last 5 matches the away team had over 2.5 in 100% of cases, the home team in 40%. Additionally, a high BTTS rate for the home side (82% vs 50% for away), average shots on target 5.18 vs 4.13 and the home conversion rate of 13% indicate a genuine ability to create chances and support an over signal. As a result, the strongest and most reliable signal is over 1.5 (selection: Over 1.5) — the combination of xG (3.28), seasonal percentages (88%/75%) and the model yields the lowest risk of failing to reach at least two goals (~84% probability).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). The rationale is that the home team were level at the break in 41% of their matches, the visitors in 56% — averaging roughly a 48% probability of a half-time draw, and in the last 5 matches both teams had an HT draw in 60% of cases. A full-time draw is further supported by the fact that Guadalupe finished matches level in 47% of cases, while the visitors win only 19% of matches, and the xG difference is small (1.55 versus 1.42), suggesting a balanced game. Although the hosts statistically score more before the break (0.94 vs 0.31), in the last 5 matches Guadalupe averaged 0.0 goals before half-time, which weakens the signal for a lead at the break for the home side; therefore X/X remains the strongest scenario, while X/1 is the second most likely outcome due to the hosts collecting more points in second halves on average (1.29 points versus 0.88 for the visitors).