Guaireña vs Fernando de la Mora: match statistics

Fernando de la Mora head into this match in noticeably better form: they have collected 8 points from their last 5 matches, winning twice and losing just once, while Guaireña have recorded 4 defeats and 1 draw. The hosts have scored just 3 goals during this period and conceded an average of 2 goals per match, highlighting their problems both in chance creation and defensive organisation. At home, Guaireña average only 0.75 goals, fail to score in 58% of matches, and have a shot conversion rate of 7%, compared with Fernando de la Mora’s 1.17 goals and 11% conversion rate away from home. The chance-quality metrics are similar, but marginally favour the visitors in attack (xG 1.42 vs. 1.39), while their last 5 matches have produced just 5 goals conceded. The visitors’ away record is not dominant, so a draw remains a realistic outcome, but current form and Guaireña’s attacking deficiencies point to Fernando de la Mora having the better chances.

Although the season-long BTTS rates stand at 62% for Guaireña and 58% for Fernando de la Mora, the hosts’ current attacking efficiency clearly reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Guaireña have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 per game, and failed to score in 23% of their matches this season. Fernando de la Mora have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their games and conceded an average of only 1.0 goal over their last five fixtures, increasing the risk that the hosts’ weak attack will be held scoreless. The visitors should create chances against a Guaireña defence that has conceded 10 goals in its last 5 matches, but they themselves have failed to score in 33% of their games this season. The hosts’ high xG of 1.39 over their last five matches supports the case for a goal, but their actual output of 0.6 goals per game slightly favours the BTTS - No scenario, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

The match profile points to a moderate number of goals: Guaireña’s average xG is 1.65, while Fernando de la Mora’s stands at 1.42, providing a basis to expect around 2.55 goals. At the same time, the hosts have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 per game, despite conceding as many as 10, so their weaker attacking form limits the risk of a very high-scoring outcome. Under 3.5 goals has landed in 77% of Guaireña’s matches and 67% of Fernando de la Mora’s, while the 3.5 line was exceeded in only 23% and 33% of cases, respectively. The visitors have been more effective in their current run, averaging 1.2 goals per game across their last five appearances, but neither team consistently records matches with more than 3 goals scored. The strongest selection is Under 3.5, as the season data and current goal production support a scoreline in the 1-3 goals range.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Fernando de la Mora victory at full-time, as Guaireña were level at the break in 54% of their matches, compared with as many as 67% for the visitors. Both teams tend to produce highly cautious first halves: the hosts average 0.38 goals before the break and the visitors 0.42, while the average total number of first-half goals is just 0.85 and 0.83, respectively. After the interval, the form advantage clearly shifts towards the visitors: Fernando de la Mora collected 1.6 points per match in their last five outings, whereas Guaireña managed only 0.2 and lost 80% of those games. During this period, the hosts scored just 0.6 goals per match and conceded 2.0, while the visitors recorded 1.2 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded. Furthermore, Guaireña did not lead at half-time in any of their last five matches, while Fernando de la Mora remained unbeaten at the break, further strengthening the forecast of a cautious start and an advantage for the visitors in the final outcome.