Gualaceo SC vs Cumbayá: match statistics

Gualaceo SC have the home advantage: they have won 46% of their home matches, while Cumbayá have won 29% of their away games. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, conceding just 2 goals; the visitors recorded 2 wins over the same period and conceded 4 goals. Gualaceo’s defence is particularly solid at home, conceding an average of 0.46 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 69% of games, compared with Cumbayá’s 0.93 goals conceded per away match. The hosts’ average home xG is 1.48, while the visitors’ away xG is 1.28, also pointing to a slight Gualaceo edge in the quality of chances created. However, Cumbayá score an average of 1.29 goals away from home, compared with the hosts’ 1.00 at home, so a draw remains a realistic outcome.

BTTS occurred in 43% of Gualaceo’s matches and 36% of Cumbayá’s, compared with a league average of 35%, so the season data do not point to frequent exchanges of goals. Both teams kept a clean sheet in 43% of their matches, while each also failed to score in 43%, increasing the likelihood that at least one side will be held scoreless. Gualaceo recorded no BTTS in its last 5 matches and conceded an average of just 0.4 goals, although Cumbayá scored 2.2 goals per game over the same period. The visitors’ attacking threat is therefore a significant argument for BTTS - Yes, but their season xG is 1.28 compared with the hosts’ 1.12, and both teams concede an average of just 0.93 goals. On balance, these signals favor BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, which landed in 79% of Gualaceo matches and 93% of Cumbayá matches. Both teams concede an average of 0.93 goals per game this season, while their average attacking xG stands at 1.12 and 1.28 respectively, pointing to a moderate goal tally. Cumbayá have averaged 2.2 goals scored over their last five matches, but their average xG was only 1.05, so sustaining that level of finishing is uncertain. Gualaceo conceded just 0.4 goals per game over the same period, further limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. With a projected total of 2.13 goals, Under 3.5 has a clearer edge than Under 2.5, which landed in 64% of the hosts' matches and 50% of the visitors' matches.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Gualaceo went into the break level in 57% of matches, compared with 54% for Cumbayá; in their recent games, these figures were 75% and 60%, respectively. In addition, the hosts conceded an average of just 0.14 goals before half-time, while the visitors conceded 0.38, pointing against an early decision. Gualaceo’s season-long draw rate of 64% and the teams’ identical average of 0.93 goals conceded per match also support the prospect of the sides remaining level. Cumbayá are more dangerous after the break, averaging 0.69 goals in the second half compared with Gualaceo’s 0.43, so an away win remains a significant alternative. Nevertheless, the hosts have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals over their last five matches and have won three times, making a draw at half-time and full-time the most cautious conclusion based on the data.