Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá: match statistics

Although Guabirá sit 7th and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, their away record favors the hosts: they have lost 60% of those games and score just 0.9 goals per match on average. Gualberto Villarroel SJ are only 16th in the table and have suffered 4 defeats in their last 5 league games, but at home they average 1.3 goals and create chances worth 1.37 xG. That matters against a visiting defence that concedes an average of 2.9 goals away from home, with opponents creating chances worth 2.09 xG against them. The hosts are also vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 1.7 goals at home, so victory is far from guaranteed. Despite the hosts’ poor recent form, Guabirá’s clear struggles away from home give a narrow edge to a Gualberto Villarroel SJ win.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ average 2.3 goals at home, while Guabirá concede 2.9 away, making a home goal highly likely. There is more uncertainty around the visitors: they score just 0.9 goals per away match and have failed to score in 40% of those games. However, their form over the last 5 matches supports an away goal, with an average of 1.8 goals scored, while the hosts conceded 2.0. BTTS - Yes landed in 80% of the hosts’ home matches and in all of Guabirá’s last 5 matches. Despite the risk that the visitors fail to score, these figures provide a stronger signal in favour of both teams scoring.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ score an average of 2.3 goals at home, while Guabirá concede 2.9 goals away, giving the hosts clear potential to score several times. The xG figures support this: the hosts create chances worth an average of 1.90 goals, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth 2.09 goals. The Over 2.5 goals line has been hit in 80% of matches involving both teams, but the figures diverge more at Over 3.5: 40% for the hosts and 60% for the visitors. Therefore, Over 1.5 is the strongest pick: it has landed in 100% of the hosts’ matches and 90% of the visitors’ games, while the 3.45-goal forecast provides additional cushion above the line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: the teams went into the break level in 4 of the 10 matches analysed, and Gualberto Villarroel SJ had not led at the break in any of their last 5 games. Over the full period analysed, however, the home side averaged 2.3 goals per match compared with Guabirá’s 0.9, while their average xG was 1.90 against their opponents’ 0.99. The case for a home win after the break is also supported by the hosts’ average of 1.3 goals scored in the second half, while the visitors conceded an average of 1.5 in that period. The signal is not unequivocal, as the home side lost 4 of their last 5 matches while the visitors won 3, so I rate the hosts to lead at the break slightly less likely than the X/1 scenario. Despite this shift in form, the hosts’ attacking edge and the visitors’ weaker defence provide the strongest case for a draw at half-time and a Gualberto Villarroel SJ win at full-time.