Guangxi Hengchen vs Dongguan United: match statistics
Guangxi Hengchen vs Dongguan United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Guangxi Hengchen played Dongguan United in China League One (China). The match was played on 30 May 2026. Final score: 3:3.
Current form
Guangxi Hengchen: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Dongguan United: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Guangxi Hengchen scores 1.11 and concedes 0.78 goals per match. Dongguan United scores 1.22 and concedes 1.44. League average: 2.26 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Guangxi Hengchen 44%, Dongguan United 56%. Over 2.5: Guangxi Hengchen 44%, Dongguan United 44%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Guangxi Hengchen has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.16. Guangxi Hengchen: 13.6 shots per match, Dongguan United: 9.6.
Match halves
Guangxi Hengchen: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.56. Dongguan United: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Guangxi Hengchen: 31-45+ (3 goals). Dongguan United: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
China League One: 2.26 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Guangxi Hengchen has a clear home advantage: they sit 5th and have won 75% of home matches (3 of 4), kept 75% clean sheets and conceded only 0.25 goals per game on average. In their last 5 outings the hosts scored 9 and conceded just 1, posting a 3-2-0 record and averaging 2.2 points per match. Dongguan United are 13th with 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses this season; in their last 5 they have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 5. The hosts also dominate chance creation: average xG at home is 1.68 versus 0.87 away xG for the visitors; hosts average 14.75 shots and 5.5 on target with 53% possession, while the visitors average 6.75 shots and 2.5 on target with 37% possession. Although the visitors have higher shot conversion on the road (22% vs 7% for the hosts), their greater defensive vulnerability (conceding 1.0 goals away on average and an xG against of 2.03) supports predicting a home win; I assess the probabilities at roughly 70% for Guangxi, 20% for a draw and 10% for Dongguan.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes as several strong indicators point to both teams scoring. The xG model shows the home side with 1.40 xG while the visitors concede 2.03 xG — the average of these values yields about 1.72 expected goals for Guangxi; conversely the combination of 0.87 xG for Dongguan and 0.95 xG against Guangxi gives roughly 0.91 xG, meaning both teams have a realistic chance to score. Season-long metrics reinforce this from the home perspective: Guangxi have BTTS in 80% of home matches and concede on average 1.8 goals at home, whereas the visitors have a season BTTS rate of only 25% and 50% clean sheets away — a mixed but meaningful signal. Additionally Dongguan convert 22% of shots versus 8% for the hosts on averages of 6.75 vs 11.8 shots, which increases the likelihood they will take their chances. Given the conflicting signals (including Guangxi’s last 5 matches conceding 1 goal total, i.e. 0.2 per game, and a league 62% clean sheet rate), I give a moderate edge to the Yes scenario with a probability split of 65% for Yes and 35% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I expect around 2.80 goals in the match: home side about 1.75, away side about 1.05. Home team has xG_for 1.4, while Dongguan United concedes on average xG 2.03 per match; averaging these values and factoring in home form (9 goals in last 5 matches, average 1.8) raises the home forecast to ≈1.7–1.8. The visitors have xG_for 0.87 and the home side concedes xG 0.95 (combined ≈0.9), but the season average goals scored by the away team is 1.5 and 1.4 in the last 5 matches, so I increase the realistic away expectation to ≈1.05. Season indicators show Over 1.5 in 80% of the home team’s matches and 75% of the away team’s matches, and the league averages 2.3 goals per game; with an expected 2.8 goals the strongest signal is Over 1.5, while Over 2.5 has a moderate edge (~58%) and Over 3.5 remains unlikely (~30%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistics clearly favor Dongguan United in the first half: the visitors led at the break in 75% of their matches this season, while the hosts did so in only 20%. At half-time the hosts average 0.2 goals and the visitors 1.0, and season win rates are 0% for Guangxi versus 50% for Dongguan, which supports a lead at the break and a Full-Time victory for the visitors. Guangxi generates more xG (1.4 vs 0.87) and more shots (11.8 vs 6.75), but has low finishing efficiency (8% vs 22%), so they create chances but fail to convert them, limiting their prospects for a turnaround. Therefore I assigned the highest weight to the 2/2 scenario (42%), and as realistic alternatives I see Half-Time draw/Full-Time away win X/2 (20%) and Half-Time draw/Full-Time draw X/X (14%). I select 2/2 as the strongest signal: the visitors lead at the break and maintain the victory until the end.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Guangxi Hengchen | Dongguan United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Guangxi Hengchen is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Guangxi Hengchen · 1.2 pts / match - Dongguan United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Dongguan United is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Guangxi Hengchen · 1.22 goals / match - Dongguan United
Guangxi Hengchen is 85% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.78 goals / match - Guangxi Hengchen · 1.44 goals / match - Dongguan United
Guangxi Hengchen scores in 78% of matches (7 of 9 matches), while Dongguan United keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
Dongguan United scores in 78% of matches (7 of 9 matches), while Guangxi Hengchen keeps a clean sheet in 44% (4 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Guangxi Hengchen
Over / Under - Dongguan United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Guangxi Hengchen - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Dongguan United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 22%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Guangxi Hengchen
Dongguan United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (China League One).
Teams vs league
| Guangxi Hengchen | Liga | Dongguan United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.89 | 2.26 | ▲ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 47% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 44% | 43% | • 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 44% | 32% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 70% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Guangxi Hengchen vs Dongguan United?
The China League One match finished Guangxi Hengchen 3:3 Dongguan United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Guangxi Hengchen vs Dongguan United?
Guangxi Hengchen score 1.11 goals per game on average and Dongguan United 1.22. The China League One average is 2.26 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Guangxi Hengchen's matches and 56% of Dongguan United's.
What form are Guangxi Hengchen and Dongguan United in?
Over the last 5 games Guangxi Hengchen have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Dongguan United 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Guangxi Hengchen vs Dongguan United?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.