Guangxi Hengchen vs Hebei Kungfu: match statistics

Guangxi Hengchen remain significantly stronger at home: they have won 60% of their home matches, have not suffered a defeat there, and average 2.1 goals per game. The hosts also create considerably more in the final third, averaging 16.3 shots and 6.3 on target compared with Hebei Kungfu’s 8.5 and 2.3 away from home. The quality of chances also favors Guangxi, whose average home xG stands at 1.88, while the visitors manage just 0.97 xG on the road and fail to score in 50% of their matches. Hebei are enjoying an excellent run of form, with 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 matches and a 10:5 goal difference, but their away record remains poor: just 20% wins and an average of 0.8 goals scored. The hosts’ solid defense, allowing opponents just 0.97 xG and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of home matches, should limit the strengths of the in-form visitors.

Seasonal BTTS figures are moderate, standing at 45% for Guangxi Hengchen and 50% for Hebei Kungfu, but current form clearly strengthens the scenario of goals from both sides. In their last five matches, Hebei recorded BTTS in as many as 80% of games, with both teams scoring 2.0 goals per match during this period. Guangxi have recently conceded an average of 1.4 goals, while Hebei, despite a run of four consecutive wins, have allowed opponents 1.0 goal per game. The hosts are creating more chances, with an xG of 1.54 in their last five matches compared with 1.10 for the visitors, while the defences have allowed xG figures of 1.37 and 1.48 respectively. The visitors’ low seasonal scoring rate of 0.8 goals per match keeps the BTTS - No risk alive, but the current attacking output of both teams gives a slight edge to BTTS - Yes.

The seasonal profiles of both teams point to a limited number of goals: Guangxi score an average of 0.91 goals, while Hebei average 0.80, with neither team scoring even one goal per game on average. The 3.5 line is a particularly strong argument for a low-scoring outcome: Guangxi’s matches finished below it in 100% of cases, while Hebei’s games did so in 90% of cases. The hosts create more chances, with an average xG of 1.18 compared with Hebei’s 0.97, while the visitors’ defence allows 1.46 xG, which raises the projection for Guangxi but does not suggest a high-scoring game. The last five matches were clearly more open, as both teams scored 2.0 goals per game, and Hebei recorded Over 2.5 in 80% of those games. This trend increases the risk of a 2:2 scoreline, but with a projected total of 2.50 goals and exceptionally strong seasonal data, Under 3.5 remains the best option.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time and a Hebei Kungfu win after 90 minutes: the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their matches, compared with 36% for the hosts. Guangxi score an average of 0.64 goals before half-time, while Hebei concede just 0.10 goals in this phase and keep a clean sheet at the break in 90% of their matches. The visitors’ advantage in the final outcome is supported by their current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, remain unbeaten, and average 2.6 points compared with the hosts’ 2.0. Hebei led at the break in each of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding only 0.2, meaning they have greater potential to turn the game in their favour after a cautious opening. Seasonal data is more balanced, but the hosts lose 36% of their matches, while Hebei’s defensive xG stands at 1.46, leaving a realistic chance of a late turnaround after a draw at half-time.