Gubbio vs Grosseto: match statistics

Grosseto are the favourites: they have recorded 6 wins and suffered only 2 defeats in 13 league matches, while Gubbio have a record of 2 wins and 9 losses. Recent form also favours the visitors: they have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches, while the hosts have failed to score. Away from home, Grosseto average 2.5 goals with an xG of 1.91, whereas Gubbio score 0.83 goals per game at home despite an xG of 1.48, pointing to the hosts’ struggles to convert their chances. Both defences give opponents opportunities: Gubbio concede an average of 1.67 goals at home, while Grosseto concede 1.5 away and have let in 11 goals across their last 5 matches. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as the visitors have drawn half of their away games, but their attacking efficiency and unbeaten away record point towards a win.

The strongest indication against both teams scoring is Gubbio’s form: they have failed to score in their last 5 matches, and BTTS - Yes has not landed in any of them. Grosseto averaged 2.4 goals per match over this period, so the main threat to the “Yes” scenario is the possibility that the hosts fail to score. Season-long figures are more balanced, however: Gubbio average 1.57 goals at home, while Grosseto concede 1.5 away. In addition, Gubbio have averaged 1.62 xG across their last 5 matches, suggesting their goalless run could come to an end. Even so, with Gubbio on 0 goals in 5 consecutive matches, it is slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been reached in 100% of Gubbio’s matches and 83% of Grosseto’s. The visitors average 2.5 goals scored per match, while the hosts concede 1.29; meanwhile, Gubbio average 1.57 goals scored, with Grosseto conceding 1.5. The attacking potential is backed up by the teams’ average xG of 1.79 and 1.91, respectively, supporting a forecast of 3.1 goals in total. The higher line is less certain: Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Gubbio’s matches, compared with 83% of Grosseto’s, and Gubbio have failed to score in each of their last five matches. Therefore, the 1.5-goal line offers a clearer signal than the riskier Over 2.5 goals pick.

The strongest signal is Grosseto leading at the break and winning at full time. The visitors were ahead at half-time in 3 of their 6 matches so far and scored an average of 1.2 goals before the break across their last 5 games; Gubbio did not lead at half-time at all during the same period. The visitors’ advantage in the full-time result is also supported by recent form: Grosseto scored an average of 2.4 goals per match and earned 1.6 points, while Gubbio failed to score and earned 0.4 points. A half-time draw remains a notable alternative, as Gubbio were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches. However, their current lack of attacking output leads me to rate 2/2 slightly higher than X/2 in the HT/FT market.