Gubbio vs Latina: match statistics

Gubbio have a slightly better recent record: they won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 12 goals in total, while Latina recorded 2 victories and scored 9 goals. The hosts enjoy more possession, averaging 58% per match compared to Latina’s 46%, and also take more shots—13 versus 9 per game. The quality of chances created also marginally favors Gubbio, whose average home xG stands at 1.33 compared to Latina’s 1.20 away from home. Both teams lost their only previous matches under these conditions and neither kept a clean sheet, but Latina concede an average of 3 goals away from home, compared to Gubbio’s 2 at home. This points to an open game in which the hosts’ greater attacking activity gives them a slight advantage.

The “Yes” pick is primarily supported by current form: in their last 5 matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, while Gubbio and Latina averaged 2.4 and 1.8 goals respectively. Gubbio conceded 1.6 goals per match during this period, compared with 1.2 for Latina, meaning neither defence has provided consistent protection against conceding. The hosts average 17.5 shots, including 5.5 on target, with an xG of 1.92, while Latina allows opponents an xG of 1.50 and has not kept a single clean sheet in the seasonal data. The visitors have lower attacking potential, but their recent xG stands at 1.72, clearly above the 0.68 xG conceded on average by Gubbio in the seasonal data, giving them a realistic route to scoring. Although the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far, the small sample size and the significantly more goal-heavy form of both teams marginally favour goals at both ends.

In their last 5 matches, Gubbio averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, resulting in as many as 4.0 total goals per game. During the same period, Latina averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while both teams recorded matches with goals at both ends in 60% of cases. The hosts create plenty of chances: their average home xG stands at 1.92, with 17.5 shots and 5.5 shots on target per game, while Latina allows an average of 1.50 xG away from home. All of Gubbio’s last 5 matches went Over 2.5 goals, although extreme statistics from such a short sample of the season should be treated with caution. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.80 goals and the attacking form of both teams significantly reduce the risk of a match finishing with no more than one goal.

Gubbio have a clear attacking advantage: their average xG stands at 1.92 compared with Latina’s 1.20, while the hosts average 5.5 shots on target per match versus 2.0 for their opponents. In their last five matches, Gubbio led at the break in 60% of games, whereas Latina were ahead at half-time in only 20%. At home, the hosts have yet to concede before the break, while Latina have conceded an average of two goals in this period away from home. Gubbio’s advantage should be maintained after the interval, as Latina have lost all of their away matches in the available data and conceded an average of three goals. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a home lead at half-time followed by a home win: 1/1.