Gubbio vs Perugia: match statistics
Gubbio vs Perugia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Gubbio played Perugia in Serie C Group B (Italy). The match was played on 3 October 2026. Venue: Stadio Pietro Barbetti. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Gubbio: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Perugia: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Gubbio scores 1.29 and concedes 1.86 goals per match. Perugia scores 0.86 and concedes 1.57. League average: 2.57 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Gubbio 57%, Perugia 29%. Over 2.5: Gubbio 57%, Perugia 57%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Perugia has higher xG: 1.45 vs 1.19. Gubbio: 8.9 shots per match, Perugia: 12.6.
Match halves
Gubbio: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.71. Perugia: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.43.
Goals by minute
Gubbio: 16-30 (3 goals). Perugia: 76-90+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie C Group B: 2.57 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Gubbio have the home advantage: they average 1.33 goals at home, while Perugia score just 0.67 goals away and have failed to win any of their 3 such matches. The visitors have failed to score in 67% of their away games, and their shot conversion rate is 5%, compared with 11% for the hosts at home. Perugia’s defence also gives opponents opportunities, conceding an average of 2.33 goals away; Gubbio concede 1.67 goals at home, so their advantage is not beyond doubt. In their last 5 matches, the hosts have scored 8 goals and earned 7 points, while the visitors have scored 3 goals and earned 6 points. Although Perugia’s away xG is 1.55, close to Gubbio’s home xG of 1.50, the difference in converting chances favours the hosts.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal against both teams scoring concerns Perugia: they have failed to score in 67% of their matches, with an average of just 0.67 goals. Gubbio have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games, further increasing the likelihood that the visitors will fail to find the net. In their last five matches, Perugia averaged 0.6 goals, and BTTS - Yes landed in just 20% of their games, compared with 60% of Gubbio’s. On the other hand, Perugia’s xG of 1.55 shows they can create chances, so a goal from the visitors cannot be ruled out. Despite this, their poor finishing and season-long BTTS rates—33% for Perugia and 25% for Gubbio—support the BTTS - No pick. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Gubbio average 1.0 goals at home, while Perugia concede as many as 2.33 goals away, giving the hosts a clear attacking edge. However, the visitors score just 0.67 goals away and have failed to score in 67% of those matches, so their contribution to the total may be limited. Although at least 3 goals were scored in 67% of Perugia’s away matches, the 3.5-goal line was not cleared in any of Gubbio’s home matches and in only 33% of Perugia’s away games. The projected total of 2.55 goals offers the strongest edge on Under 3.5 goals, with an estimated probability of 75%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: Gubbio were level at the break in 2 of their 4 home matches, while Perugia averaged just 0.33 first-half goals away from home. The balance should shift towards the hosts after the break, as Perugia conceded an average of 2.0 goals in the second halves of their away matches and lost all 3 of those halves. Gubbio conceded just 0.25 goals on average in second halves at home, reducing the visitors’ chances of a turnaround. The case for a home win at full time is also supported by the results: Gubbio won 3 of 4 home matches, while Perugia failed to win any of their 3 away games. The sample is small, but the combination of frequent half-time draws and Perugia’s clear second-half weakness points most strongly to the X/1 scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Gubbio | Perugia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.20 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Gubbio is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Gubbio · 1.2 pts / match - Perugia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Gubbio is 50% better for: goals scored per match.
1.29 goals / match - Gubbio · 0.86 goals / match - Perugia
Perugia is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.86 goals / match - Gubbio · 1.57 goals / match - Perugia
Gubbio scores in 57% of matches (4 of 7 matches), while Perugia keeps a clean sheet in 29% (2 of 7 matches).
Perugia scores in 57% of matches (4 of 7 matches), while Gubbio keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Gubbio
Over / Under - Perugia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Perugia is 29% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Gubbio · 1.29 pts / match - Perugia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Gubbio - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Perugia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Gubbio
Perugia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie C Group B).
Teams vs league
| Gubbio | Liga | Perugia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.14 | 2.57 | ▼ 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | • 57% | 57% | ▼ 29% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 57% | 48% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 26% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 71% | • 71% |
| Goal after half-time | • 71% | 72% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Gubbio 1 - 1 - 0 Perugia. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Gubbio vs Perugia?
The Serie C Group B match finished Gubbio 1:3 Perugia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Gubbio and Perugia?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Gubbio won 1, Perugia won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Gubbio vs Perugia?
Gubbio score 1.29 goals per game on average and Perugia 0.86. The Serie C Group B average is 2.57 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Gubbio's matches and 29% of Perugia's.
What form are Gubbio and Perugia in?
Over the last 5 games Gubbio have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Perugia 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Gubbio vs Perugia?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Gubbio vs Perugia: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.