Gubbio vs Reggiana: match statistics

The early-season data is very limited, but Gubbio’s first result was a 0:3 defeat, while Reggiana drew 1:1 and conceded just one goal. Over their last five matches, both teams have scored 5 goals and conceded 7, indicating an almost identical attacking record and defensive weaknesses. Gubbio has a slightly better record over this period, securing 2 wins compared with Reggiana’s 1, while also averaging 1.2 points per match against the latter’s 1.0. Reggiana has, however, shared the points more often, drawing 2 of its last 5 matches, and its current 1:1 result suggests greater stability than the hosts’ heavy defeat. With the numbers so evenly matched, a draw appears the most likely outcome, although home advantage gives Gubbio a realistic chance of securing the win.

Data from the last five matches shows Gubbio and Reggiana scoring 1.0 goal per game each, while also conceding 1.4 goals per game, providing a basis for goals at both ends. Reggiana recorded BTTS - Yes in 80% of their last five matches, whereas Gubbio’s rate stands at just 40%, exactly matching the league average. During this period, the hosts generated only 0.74 xG per game, significantly below Reggiana’s 1.37 xG, making a Gubbio goal the biggest risk to the BTTS scenario. The league is relatively tight, averaging 2.1 goals per match, with 70% of games featuring a clean sheet for at least one team. Therefore, BTTS - No is marginally the stronger option, meaning that at least one of the teams will finish the match without scoring.

The last five matches for both teams produced identical figures: 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per match, indicating a combined level close to 2.4 goals. During this period, Gubbio created chances worth only 0.74 xG per match, while Reggiana recorded 1.37 xG, so the forecast points to a moderate attacking advantage for the visitors rather than an open game. The league average is just 2.1 goals, and only 30% of matches go over 2.5 goals. Although Over 2.5 landed in 60% of Gubbio’s last five matches, the four-goal threshold remains clearly too high compared with the projected 2.35 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, rated at 79%, as it requires no more than three goals.

The strongest scenario is Gubbio leading at the break and holding on for the win, as the hosts have led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Reggiana have done so only once. Across those five games, Gubbio conceded an average of 0.4 goals before the break, while the visitors scored an average of 0.6 goals in that period, giving the hosts an edge in the battle to open the scoring. The hosts average 13 shots and 4 on target, with an xG of 1.55, so they have a solid basis for turning their initiative into a goal. Reggiana have drawn as many as 2 of their last five matches, while both teams have averaged 1.0 goal per game, meaning an equaliser after half-time remains a significant threat. Nevertheless, Gubbio have the better recent win record, 40% compared with 20%, and the league trends clearly favour the hosts, who score an average of 1.6 goals per match compared with 0.5 for visiting teams.