Guingamp vs Annecy: match statistics

Annecy sit 2nd and have collected 10 points from their last five matches, winning 3 of them, while Guingamp have managed just 5 points over the same period. However, the hosts remain unbeaten at home, recording 1 win and 1 draw, scoring an average of 2.00 goals per match from 5 shots on target and 14 attempts. Annecy have won 67% of their away matches, but create just 1.02 xG on average, while their defence allows opponents 1.78 xG per game. Guingamp have a clear edge in the quality of chances created at home, with an xG of 1.37 compared with Annecy’s 1.02 away from home, so a slight advantage should be given to the hosts. Neither side has yet recorded an away or home match without scoring, which also increases the likelihood of a close contest with goals at both ends.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive: Annecy records BTTS in 67% of matches, while Guingamp does so in 50%, compared with a league average of 56%. In their last five matches, both teams had a BTTS rate of 60% and scored 1.4 goals per match, while Guingamp conceded as many as 1.6 goals. The home side creates more quality chances, averaging 1.52 xG and 6.0 shots on target, while Annecy’s defence allows an average of 1.78 xG. Annecy has lower attacking potential, at 1.02 xG, but Guingamp keeps a clean sheet in 50% of matches, leaving a noticeable risk of a No Goal scenario for the visitors. Despite the hosts’ defensive solidity, their current scoring form and elevated number of goals conceded provide slightly stronger support for BTTS - Yes.

Guingamp create chances worth an average of 1.52 xG at home, while Annecy allow opponents as much as 1.78 xG away from home, clearly strengthening the hosts’ scoring outlook. The hosts score an average of 1.50 goals on home soil and exceeded the 1.5-goal mark in 100% of such matches. Annecy average 1.33 goals scored away from home, while in their last five appearances both teams have recorded an average of 1.4 goals scored per match. The combined expected-chance profile points to approximately 2.70 goals, giving Over 1.5 a clear edge, although the Over/Under 2.5 line remains considerably more balanced. At the same time, Guingamp have not recorded any matches exceeding 3.5 goals in the current competition, which limits the potential for a very high-scoring game.

A draw at half-time followed by an Annecy win is the most likely outcome, as both teams have played first halves averaging just 1.0 goal across their last five matches. Annecy conceded only 0.2 goals per match before the break and kept a clean sheet in this period in 80% of their recent outings, limiting Guingamp’s home advantage. After half-time, the hosts conceded an average of 1.2 goals over their last five matches, while Annecy lost only 20% of those fixtures and averaged 2.0 points per match compared with Guingamp’s 1.0. The visitors won 60% of their last five matches, whereas the hosts won only 20%, so after an even start, Annecy have greater potential to turn the game in their favour late on. However, Guingamp’s creative edge, reflected in an xG of 1.52 and 6 shots on target per match compared with 1.02 and 3 for their opponents, reduces confidence in this pick and strengthens the draw or home-win scenarios.