Guingamp vs Nantes: match statistics

Guingamp have the home advantage: they won their only home match so far, kept a clean sheet and scored 1 goal. Nantes, on the other hand, have lost every away fixture, conceding an average of 2 goals per match and failing to record a single clean sheet. The hosts are in poorer overall form, having scored 5 goals and conceded 8 in their last five matches, but Nantes have performed even worse in terms of results: they suffered 4 defeats in five outings and conceded 10 goals. However, the visitors create chances worth an average of 1.60 xG away from home, more than Guingamp’s 1.27 xG at home, making a Nantes goal a realistic scenario. Nevertheless, the hosts’ more solid defence and Nantes’ clearly vulnerable away defensive record point towards a narrow Guingamp win.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear, as Nantes have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far, while Guingamp have done so in 50%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, with Guingamp conceding an average of 3.0 goals per match and Nantes 2.0. Nantes create more chances, averaging 16 shots and an xG of 1.60, whereas Guingamp have an xG of 1.32 and 4 shots on target per game. In their last five matches, the teams conceded 1.6 and 2.0 goals per game respectively, which should give both sides a genuine opportunity to score. However, the BTTS pick is only moderate, as Guingamp score an average of just 1.0 goal and BTTS occurred in 40% of their last five matches, although Nantes’ weak defence supports the possibility of Guingamp breaking that barrier.

Neither team has kept a clean sheet so far, and both have conceded in 100% of their matches to date, clearly supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Nantes create an average of 1.60 xG per match, while Guingamp’s defence allows opponents 1.57 xG, resulting in an estimated 1.55 goals for the visitors. Guingamp generate 1.32 xG, while Nantes allow opponents 1.10 xG, meaning the hosts should also have a realistic chance of scoring. In their last five matches, Nantes’ opponents averaged 2.0 goals, and at least 2 goals were scored in 100% of Nantes’ matches to date. The Over 1.5 line offers value, as the projection of 2.75 goals provides a wide margin even if finishing efficiency is lower than the quality of chances created would suggest.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Nantes win, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Guingamp scored just 0.4 goals per game before the break during this period. Nantes possess greater attacking potential: their average xG stands at 1.60 compared with the hosts’ 1.32, and they have averaged 1.6 goals in their last five matches, compared with Guingamp’s 1.0. Guingamp’s defence looks particularly vulnerable, with the team conceding 1.6 goals on average according to xG, compared with 1.1 for Nantes, while they have conceded a total of 5 goals between the 46th and 90th minutes. A goal was scored after half-time in 100% of Nantes’ last five matches, while the hosts lost the second half in 60% of those games, strengthening the case for a late turnaround by the visitors.