Gyeongnam vs Daegu: match statistics

Gyeongnam are clearly in more stable form at present: they have collected 6 points and conceded only 4 goals in their last 5 matches, while Daegu have taken 4 points and allowed 11 goals. The hosts win 50% of their home matches, scoring an average of 1.9 goals, whereas Daegu concede as many as 1.78 goals per away game. Daegu create slightly more high-quality chances on the road, with an average xG of 1.70 compared with Gyeongnam’s 1.39 at home, but their defence allows opponents an xG of 1.48, compared with 1.15 for the hosts. Both teams rarely finish matches without scoring, doing so in just 10% and 11% of games respectively, so goals at both ends can be expected. Gyeongnam’s advantage is primarily based on their better defensive organisation in recent weeks and stronger home record, although Daegu’s high 44% away draw rate increases the risk of a share of the points.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS occurred in 60% of Gyeongnam matches and as many as 89% of Daegu matches, compared with the league average of 64%. Both teams score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while their xG figures stand at 1.85 and 1.70 respectively, indicating regular creation of high-quality chances. Daegu keeps a clean sheet in only 11% of matches and has conceded 11 goals in its last 5 games, averaging 2.2 per outing, so the hosts have strong grounds to find the net. Gyeongnam has improved defensively, conceding just 0.8 goals across its last five matches, but Daegu still generates an average of 1.50 xG and recorded BTTS in 80% of its recent games. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which both teams score at least once, rather than a BTTS - No outcome where one side remains goalless.

Gyeongnam average 2.0 goals per match, while Daegu concede 1.78, which points towards at least two goals in the game. The hosts create chances worth 1.85 xG, whereas the visitors allow opponents 1.48 xG per match and have kept a clean sheet in only 11% of their games. Both teams have gone over the 1.5-goal line in 80% and 89% of their matches this season, respectively, while Daegu have conceded as many as 11 goals in their last five outings—2.2 per match. Additionally, both sides are regularly active after the break, with the average number of second-half goals standing at 1.90 for Gyeongnam and 2.22 for Daegu. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the hosts’ attacking profile and the visitors’ recent defensive struggles clearly reduce the risk of a match featuring no more than one goal.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Gyeongnam win: the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their matches, while Daegu had been trailing at half-time in as many as 60% of their last five games. Current first-half form clearly favors Gyeongnam, who have averaged 1.25 goals before the break, compared with Daegu’s 0.40, while the visitors have conceded 1.40 goals on average. After the interval, the hosts are stronger, scoring an average of 1.30 goals and allowing opponents just 0.60, compared with Daegu’s 1.22 scored and 1.00 conceded. Over the course of the season, Gyeongnam have won 60% of their matches and average 1.9 points per game, while Daegu have recorded just a 33% win rate and concede an average of 1.78 goals. The X/1 scenario is further supported by Daegu’s five-match run, during which they conceded an average of 2.2 goals, whereas Gyeongnam allowed just 0.8 goals per game.