Győri ETO vs Ferencváros: match statistics

Both teams sit very close in the table (Győri 1st, Ferencváros 2nd) and share an identical record in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) with an average of 2 points per game, indicating an even contest. Ferencváros, however, holds an edge in efficiency: they win 73% of away matches versus 57% home wins for the hosts, average 1.93 goals on the road and have scored 8 goals in the last 5 games, with no away matches without a goal (FTS 0% vs 29% for the hosts). Győri generates more chances at home: average xG 2.11 versus 1.66 for the visitors, about 6 shots on target and 17.43 attempts per game, and 62% possession, while conceding only 0.64 goals per home game compared to 0.73 for the visitors. The decisive factor is conversion — hosts have an accuracy rate around 8% versus 14% for Ferencváros, which, given equal points tallies, increases the visitors’ probability of converting the fewer chances they create. Based on this, I tip a narrow Ferencváros win, though the match should be tight and decided by a small number of goal-mouth situations.

Both teams show a high BTTS rate this season: Győri 71% and Ferencváros 60%, versus the league average of 61%, indicating a bias toward a Goal/Goal scenario. Offensively Győri averages 2.0 goals and xG 2.13 with 6.64 shots on target, while Ferencváros has 1.93 goals and xG 1.66 with 4.87 shots on target; shot-to-goal conversion stands at 12% versus 14%. Defensively Ferencváros concedes only 0.73 goals on average away and records a clean sheet in 40% of away matches, whereas Győri concedes 1.36 at home and has 21% clean sheets; at the same time Ferencváros has 0% matches without scoring, and Győri has 7% such games. In the last 5 matches both teams produced BTTS in 60% of cases, with goal outputs 9 (Győri) and 8 (Ferencváros) and goals conceded 4 and 7, showing recent form favors goal exchanges. Considering 71% vs 60%, the league 61%, the xG advantage (2.13 vs 1.66) and the fact Ferencváros consistently scores (0% matches without scoring), I forecast BTTS - Yes at 70% vs 30% and select yes.

Both teams demonstrate strong attacking output: Győri ETO averages 2.00 goals per game, Ferencváros 1.93, and modelled xG is 2.13 for the home side and 1.66 for the visitors, translating to expected 1.72 goals for the home team and 1.40 for the away team (total 3.12). Seasonal stats confirm a propensity for high-scoring games — 93% of Győri ETO’s matches exceeded Over 2.5 goals, 80% of Ferencváros’s matches exceeded Over 1.5 goals, and in 71% of home matches and 60% of away matches both teams scored at least once. In the last 5 fixtures the home team scored 9 goals total (1.8 per game), the visitors 8 goals (1.6 per game), with average xG of 2.02 (home) and 1.33 (away) for that period. Given the expected 3.12 goals, the strong Over 1.5 rates (93%/80%) and frequent BTTS occurrences, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — I estimate its probability at about 92%. Over 2.5 is also meaningful (≈70%) due to the home side’s 93% Over 2.5 rate and the modelled xG, whereas Over 3.5 looks less certain (~38%).

Ferencváros is the clear favorite: they win 73% of matches this season and lead at the break in 67% of games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and only 0.13 conceded in the first half. The hosts score on average 1.0 goals by halftime and concede 0.64, while the visitors have scored 6 goals in the 0–15 minute period versus 3 for the hosts, suggesting that Ferencváros more often takes the lead before the break. Although Győri generates higher xG (2.13 vs 1.66) and more shots (17.29 vs 14.2), the visitors are more efficient (shot conversion 14% vs 12%) and average 2.4 points per game compared to the hosts’ 1.64, which increases Ferencváros’s likelihood of winning. Given the visitors’ 67% rate of leading at the break and their 73% seasonal win rate, the most confident signal is Ferencváros to lead at half-time and win full-time (2/2). Due to the hosts’ 9 goals in the 76–90 minute window, I also allow X/2 as a secondary option.