Hajer vs Jeddah: match statistics

Hajer hold a slight edge in terms of form: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, compared with Jeddah’s 5. The hosts have scored 10 goals during this period, averaging 2.0 per game, clearly more than Jeddah’s 4 goals (0.8 per match). Both defenses have been far from convincing, but the visitors look weaker, having conceded as many as 11 goals in their last five outings, compared with 9 for Hajer. Hajer have won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Jeddah have won only one, alongside two draws and two defeats. The hosts’ superior attacking efficiency and the visitors’ significantly greater defensive problems point to a Hajer victory, although the number of goals conceded by both sides leaves a realistic possibility of a draw.

The signal for BTTS comes primarily from the last five matches: Hajer recorded goals from both teams in 100% of games, while Jeddah did so in 60%. During this period, Hajer averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, whereas Jeddah scored just 0.8 but allowed opponents as many as 2.2 goals per match. The home side should have a high chance of scoring, as their xG stands at 1.22, while Jeddah’s defence allowed 1.69 xG. The visitors are the weaker element of the bet; however, their xG of 1.20, combined with Hajer conceding nine goals in five matches, gives a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score — BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal.

The most useful data from the last 5 matches points to an open game: Hajer averaged 2.0 goals scored, while Jeddah conceded as many as 2.2 goals per match. Hajer conceded 9 goals during this period, or 1.8 per game, giving Jeddah a realistic chance of adding a goal of their own despite averaging only 0.8 goals scored. At least 3 goals were scored in all 5 of Hajer’s last matches, while this occurred in 3 of Jeddah’s 5 games. The combined recent xG of both teams is 2.42, with the hosts’ higher attacking potential supported by an xG of 1.22 compared with the 1.69 xG allowed by Jeddah. Over 1.5 is the safest choice, as even after adjusting for the high-scoring results in this short sample, the expected total of 2.65 goals clearly points to at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hajer victory at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 75% of the available sample and never went into half-time trailing. Hajer defend very well before the break: their opponents have failed to score against them in the first half, while Jeddah conceded an average of 0.8 goals before half-time and were trailing at the break in 40% of their matches. After the interval, the hosts score an average of 1.5 goals, compared with just 0.4 for the visitors, while Jeddah concede as many as 1.4 goals per match in this period. Hajer’s advantage over the last five matches is also reflected in the full-time results: the team averages 1.4 points per game compared with Jeddah’s 1.0, and won 40% of their matches, compared with 20% for their opponents.