Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig: match statistics
RB Leipzig appears as the clear favorite of this match despite poorer form in their last five games. The visitors occupy 5th place in the table with a 45% away win rate, while Hamburger SV is only in 11th position. Leipzig dominates in terms of ball possession (53% vs 46%) and offensive efficiency, scoring an average of 1.91 goals per match overall this season compared to the hosts' 1.14. Hamburger SV has a negative goal difference (-7 overall), and their home form shows only a 45% win rate with an 18% loss rate. Another key factor is the quality of the squads – Leipzig is a team fighting for top positions, while HSV is in the middle of the table. Considering all statistics, I predict an away win, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to Hamburg's home advantage.
Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hamburger SV played RB Leipzig in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 1 March 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Hamburger SV: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. RB Leipzig: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hamburger SV scores 1.14 and concedes 1.45 goals per match. RB Leipzig scores 1.91 and concedes 1.39. League average: 3.18 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hamburger SV 55%, RB Leipzig 57%. Over 2.5: Hamburger SV 50%, RB Leipzig 65%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
RB Leipzig has higher xG: 1.78 vs 1.43. Hamburger SV: 13.2 shots per match, RB Leipzig: 16.2.
Match halves
Hamburger SV: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.73. RB Leipzig: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Hamburger SV: 76-90+ (6 goals). RB Leipzig: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.18 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
RB Leipzig appears as the clear favorite of this match despite poorer form in their last five games. The visitors occupy 5th place in the table with a 45% away win rate, while Hamburger SV is only in 11th position. Leipzig dominates in terms of ball possession (53% vs 46%) and offensive efficiency, scoring an average of 1.91 goals per match overall this season compared to the hosts' 1.14. Hamburger SV has a negative goal difference (-7 overall), and their home form shows only a 45% win rate with an 18% loss rate. Another key factor is the quality of the squads – Leipzig is a team fighting for top positions, while HSV is in the middle of the table. Considering all statistics, I predict an away win, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to Hamburg's home advantage.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hamburger SV | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hamburger SV is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Hamburger SV · 1.2 pts / match - RB Leipzig
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
RB Leipzig is 68% better for: goals scored per match.
1.14 goals / match - Hamburger SV · 1.91 goals / match - RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV scores in 64% of matches (14 of 22 matches), while RB Leipzig keeps a clean sheet in 39% (9 of 23 matches).
RB Leipzig scores in 91% of matches (21 of 23 matches), while Hamburger SV keeps a clean sheet in 27% (6 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hamburger SV
Over / Under - RB Leipzig
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
RB Leipzig is 60% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.09 pts / match - Hamburger SV · 1.74 pts / match - RB Leipzig
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hamburger SV - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
RB Leipzig - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Hamburger SV | Liga | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.59 | 3.18 | ▲ 3.30 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 58% | • 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 63% | ▲ 65% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 27% | 23% | ▲ 39% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 68% | 76% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 83% | ▼ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Hamburger SV 0 - 0 - 1 RB Leipzig. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
The Bundesliga match finished Hamburger SV 1:2 RB Leipzig. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
Hamburger SV score 1.14 goals per game on average and RB Leipzig 1.91. The Bundesliga average is 3.18 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Hamburger SV's matches and 57% of RB Leipzig's.
What form are Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig in?
Over the last 5 games Hamburger SV have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and RB Leipzig 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.