HamKam vs Aalesund: match statistics

HamKam have a clearly superior home record: they win 71% of their matches, score an average of 1.86 goals, and have not failed to score in any home game. Aalesund win just 17% of their away matches, concede an average of 2.33 goals, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of them. The hosts are admittedly in weaker current form, with 1 win and 3 defeats in their last five matches, conceding 10 goals, but the visitors have not won any of their last five games and have conceded as many as 17 goals during that period. Aalesund’s defence allows opponents an average of 2.17 xG away from home, which, combined with HamKam’s 17% conversion rate, should result in several good chances for the hosts. The visitors create slightly more xG, 1.31 compared with 1.30, but their away average of just 1 goal and 33% of matches without scoring support a HamKam victory.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the exceptionally weak defensive performances of both teams: HamKam and Aalesund are conceding an average of 2.33 goals per match, and neither side has kept a clean sheet yet. HamKam have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches this season, while Aalesund have done so in 67%, compared with a league average of 55%. In their last five matches, Aalesund have averaged 1.6 goals scored, while HamKam have conceded 2.0 per game, and the hosts have registered 5.56 shots on target per match this season. HamKam’s opponents have conceded as many as 3.4 goals per game across their last five appearances, while their average xG against stands at 2.04, clearly increasing the hosts’ chances of scoring. The main risk is HamKam’s weaker recent run, with BTTS occurring in 40% of their matches; however, Aalesund’s 100% BTTS rate during this period and the defensive struggles on both sides provide stronger support for both teams to score.

HamKam average 1.67 goals at home, while Aalesund concede as many as 2.33 goals per away game, with neither team keeping a clean sheet this season. The xG model also points to an open game: the hosts create chances worth 1.86 xG, while the visitors’ defense allows an average of 2.17 xG. In their last five matches, both teams recorded at least three goals in 80% of their games, while Aalesund conceded as many as 17 goals during this period—3.4 per match. The 1.5 line was covered in 100% of HamKam’s matches and 83% of Aalesund’s, which is a significantly stronger signal than at higher thresholds. Over 1.5 therefore carries a high probability, supported by weak defenses, a high volume of chances created, and the very frequent occurrence of at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a HamKam win after the final whistle, as the hosts were level at the break in 6 of their 9 matches, or 67% of the time. HamKam create significantly more chances: their average xG stands at 1.86 compared with Aalesund’s 1.31, while the hosts record 5.56 shots on target per match against 3.83 for their opponents. Aalesund have conceded as many as 3.4 goals per match over their last five games, whereas HamKam have averaged 1.0 goal in the second half. Both teams regularly concede after the break, averaging 1.44 goals conceded for HamKam and 1.33 for Aalesund, which supports a decisive outcome following a more cautious first half. The hosts’ superior attacking quality and the visitors’ poor current defensive form suggest that HamKam will turn a level match in their favour late on.