Hammam-Lif vs ES Tunis: match statistics

ES Tunis sit 4th, while Hammam-Lif are bottom of the table in 16th place, with the difference also reflected in their form: the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, whereas the hosts have failed to win any of their games during this period and averaged just 0.4 points per match. Hammam-Lif have failed to score in both of their matches so far this season and in their last five appearances, despite creating chances worth an average of 1.50 xG at home. ES Tunis have scored 6 goals in 3 matches and generate as much as 2.25 xG away from home, with 18 shots and 5 shots on target per game, giving them a clear edge in the quality of chances created. However, the hosts average 62% possession at home, while the visitors’ defence concedes an average of 3 goals away from home, so a draw remains a realistic scenario. Despite their poor most recent away result, ES Tunis’ greater attacking consistency should ultimately decide the match in favour of the visitors.

The strongest signal against BTTS - Yes comes from Hammam-Lif’s current form: the team has failed to score in its last 5 matches, with BTTS occurring in 0% of those games. The hosts have conceded an average of just 0.6 goals per match during this run, while their average attacking xG is only 0.96, clearly limiting the likelihood of a breakthrough. ES Tunis are in better form, averaging 1.4 goals across their last 5 appearances and generating 1.88 xG, meaning they could score even in a one-sided scenario. The teams’ seasonal 100% BTTS record and the absence of clean sheets should be treated cautiously given the hosts’ very weak current attacking output. It is therefore more likely that at least one team—above all Hammam-Lif—will fail to score, supporting the BTTS - No / No Goal market.

Hammam-Lif’s recent form clearly limits the game’s goal-scoring potential: the team has failed to score in its last 5 matches, while conceding just 0.6 goals per game during that period. ES Tunis have recently averaged 1.4 goals, with an xG of 1.88, but the home side’s defense has restricted opponents to just 1.00 xG. The hosts have created only 0.96 xG across their last five matches, while ES Tunis’s defense has allowed 0.76 xG, further reducing the likelihood of a home goal. The league averages just 1.95 goals per match, and only 35% of games have gone over 2.5 goals. Early-season data for both teams points to high-scoring results, but the significantly stronger signal from the last five matches supports a safe Under 3.5 bet.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an ES Tunis victory at full-time (X/2), as Hammam-Lif have failed to score in their last five matches, while ES Tunis have averaged 1.4 goals. The hosts were level at the break in 80% of those games and averaged just 0.2 goals in the first half, which strongly supports an initial draw. ES Tunis led after 45 minutes in 40% of their recent matches, whereas Hammam-Lif have not once gone into half-time with the lead. After the interval, the visitors averaged 0.8 goals, while the hosts again failed to score in their last five matches; additionally, ES Tunis won 60% of this period, whereas Hammam-Lif did not win a single game. Although the hosts’ home-season data is very strong, their current run of five matches, including three consecutive defeats, significantly reduces the credibility of the home-win scenario.