Hammam-Sousse vs Monastir: match statistics

Hammam-Sousse have the better record over their last five matches, winning 3 games and collecting 9 points, while Monastir have recorded 2 victories and accumulated 6 points. The hosts have scored 8 goals during this period, 3 more than their opponents, giving them a clear attacking edge. Monastir look slightly more solid defensively, conceding just 4 goals compared with Hammam-Sousse’s 7, but they have lost 3 of their last 5 matches. The absence of draws in either team’s last five games suggests that this fixture is more likely to produce a winner than end with the points shared. The hosts’ advantage in attacking efficiency and number of wins, reinforced by home-field advantage, points towards a narrow victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Monastir have not recorded a Goal/Goal result in any of their last 5 matches and have conceded just 0.8 goals on average. Hammam-Sousse did score 1.6 goals per game during this period, but their average xG is only 0.56, suggesting limited chance quality against a well-organised visiting defence. Monastir averaged 1.0 goal and produced an xG of 1.11, while Hammam-Sousse’s defence allowed opponents just 0.58 xG per match. The hosts had BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches, but this contrasts with Monastir’s 0 of 5 and the goals-conceded figures of 7 versus 4. The most likely scenario is therefore that at least one team will fail to score.

The available results from the last 5 matches show that Hammam-Sousse averaged 1.6 goals scored, but its average xG was only 0.56, suggesting a poor quality of chances created. Monastir conceded just 0.8 goals per match over this period, while its average xG against stood at 0.83, making it difficult to expect a high goal tally from the hosts. The visitors averaged 1.0 goals scored, whereas Hammam-Sousse’s defence allowed opponents just 0.58 xG per match. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of the hosts’ last 5 matches, but in only 1 of Monastir’s 5 appearances, while both teams scored in 0% of the visitors’ matches. The projected total of 1.70 goals strongly supports Under 3.5, as losing this line would require at least 4 goals despite the low chance-quality metrics.

Hammam-Sousse have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals, while Monastir have suffered 3 defeats and averaged just 1.0 goal. The hosts held a lead at the break in 67% of the matches in this sample, compared with 40% for the visitors, while their average first-half goal tally stands at 0.67 versus Monastir’s 0.40. Monastir’s defensive strength is a key factor, as they conceded an average of just 0.8 goals across their last five appearances; therefore, a Half-Time/Full-Time draw/home-win outcome remains a significant alternative. Nevertheless, Hammam-Sousse have the stronger results profile, averaging 1.8 points per match compared with 1.2, so the most likely scenario remains a home lead at half-time followed by a home win at full-time (1/1).