Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien: match statistics

A draw in a low-scoring match is the most likely outcome. In their only home game to date, Hammam-Sousse drew 0:0, keeping a clean sheet but also failing to score; the hosts average just 6 shots and create chances worth 0.84 xG. Stade Tunisien enjoy slightly more possession away from home, averaging 56% compared with the opponent’s 45%, but the quality of their chances is even lower at 0.78 xG. The visitors have scored 3 goals in their last 5 matches, while Hammam-Sousse have scored just 2; however, both teams have lost 3 games during this period and have shown comparably poor finishing efficiency. The hosts’ defensive advantage, confirmed by their failure to concede at home, offsets Stade Tunisien’s greater attacking activity, making a draw the most logical scenario.

Although both teams’ seasonal BTTS rates stand at 100%, their significantly more recent form clearly weakens this signal: over the last 5 matches, the figures were only 20% for Hammam-Sousse and 40% for Stade Tunisien. During this period, the hosts averaged 0.4 goals and the visitors 0.6, meaning both attacks have regularly struggled to add to the scoresheet. Hammam-Sousse produced just 0.76 xG per match across their last five games, while Stade Tunisien averages only 2 shots on target and 6 attempts per match over the course of the season. The league averages 1.95 goals per match, with BTTS occurring in 50% of games, which also provides limited support for a Goal/Goal scenario. Therefore, the most likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning at least one team will fail to score.

Both teams have produced limited attacking output in their last five matches: Hammam-Sousse have averaged 0.4 goals, while Stade Tunisien have averaged 0.6. Over the same period, each side conceded 1.0 goal per game, pointing to results more likely to be 0:1, 1:0, or 1:1 than an open, high-scoring game. Only 20% of each team’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, while the league-wide average is just 1.95 goals per game. The hosts have recently created chances worth 0.76 xG, and although the visitors have recorded 1.26 xG, their combined profile still points to approximately 1.85 goals. Under 3.5 goals is therefore the strongest selection, as this bet only loses if at least four goals are scored—something not supported by the teams’ current form.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Hammam-Sousse were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Stade Tunisien. Both teams’ first halves are very low-scoring: the hosts averaged 0.0 goals and the visitors 0.2, with total averages of 0.2 and 0.8 goals respectively. Matches open up slightly after the interval, averaging 1.2 goals in the hosts’ games and 0.8 in the visitors’ matches, but both teams score only 0.4 goals per game during that period. Hammam-Sousse hold the creative advantage, producing an xG of 1.39 versus their opponents’ 0.78 and averaging 14 shots compared with the visitors’ 6, which reduces the risk of a Stade Tunisien win at full-time. At the same time, recent form remains closely matched and poor — the hosts averaged 0.8 points and the visitors 1.0 point per match — so the most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw maintained until the final whistle.