Hannover 96 vs Wolfsburg: match statistics

Hannover 96 have been in excellent form across their last five matches, winning 4 games and scoring 17 goals, averaging 3.4 goals per match. Wolfsburg also boast an effective attack, with 15 goals over the same period, but recorded 3 wins and 1 draw, while the hosts have averaged 2.4 points per game compared with the visitors’ 2.0. Hannover’s defence has conceded 6 goals in its last five matches, one more than Wolfsburg, which limits the extent of the hosts’ advantage. However, Wolfsburg sit 8th in the table, while Hannover are 16th, meaning the visitors remain capable of putting up a competitive challenge. Hannover’s strongest arguments are their current four-match winning streak and superior goal output, which is why the hosts are slight favourites.

The signal for goals from both sides is reinforced by the teams’ form across their last five matches: both Hannover and Wolfsburg recorded BTTS in 60% of those games. During this period, Hannover averaged 3.4 goals with an xG of 2.17, while Wolfsburg scored 3.0 goals per match and generated an xG of 1.82. Neither defence was flawless, as the hosts conceded an average of 1.2 goals and the visitors 1.0, with Wolfsburg allowing opponents an xG of 1.65. An additional argument is the league BTTS average of 67% and the high average of 3.44 goals per match, making it more likely that both teams will find the back of the net.

Both teams have been highly clinical in their last five matches: Hannover averaged 3.4 goals, while Wolfsburg averaged 3.0. The hosts created chances worth an average of 2.17 xG, while the visitors allowed opponents 1.65 xG, supporting a projection of around 1.90 goals for Hannover. Wolfsburg generated 1.82 xG per match, while Hannover conceded just 0.91 xG, so the visitors’ potential was assessed more conservatively at 1.40 goals. Over 2.5 goals landed in all 5 of Hannover’s last matches and in 80% of Wolfsburg’s last five matches, compared with a league average of 3.44 goals. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as even with below-expected attacking efficiency, the data for both teams clearly points to at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hannover victory, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, losing none of them. Hannover won 4 of those 5 games and averaged 2.2 goals after the break, clearly more than Wolfsburg, who scored an average of 1.2 goals in second halves. The visitors are, however, highly dangerous from the outset: they led at the break in 60% of their recent matches and averaged 1.8 goals before half-time, compared with Hannover’s 1.2, which also increases the risk of the 2/2 outcome. The hosts, meanwhile, possess strong creative potential, with an average xG of 1.88 and just 0.99 xG conceded, while their last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals scored. Given the high quality of both attacks, an evenly balanced start followed by Hannover taking control after the break appears to be the most likely scenario.