Hansa Rostock vs Stuttgart II: match statistics

Hansa Rostock have a clear edge in chance creation at home, averaging 19 shots and 6.5 shots on target per match, with an xG of 2.12 compared to Stuttgart II’s 1.37 away from home. The hosts score 2.00 goals per home game and have never been held scoreless, while the visitors have failed to score in 33% of their away fixtures. Stuttgart II are nevertheless a threat on the road, winning 2 of 3 such matches and recording a 16% shot conversion rate, higher than Hansa’s 11%. Rostock’s key weakness remains their defence, which concedes an average of 2.00 goals at home and has allowed as many as 14 goals in their last five matches. Despite this defensive instability, the greater volume of chances created and home advantage slightly favour a home win.

The signal for both teams to score is strong, as BTTS has landed in 100% of Hansa’s matches so far and in 67% of Stuttgart II’s games, compared with the league average of 56%. Hansa have yet to keep a clean sheet and concede as many as 3.0 goals per match on average, significantly increasing the visitors’ chances, with Stuttgart II scoring an average of 1.67 goals. Stuttgart II have also failed to keep a clean sheet, while Hansa, despite scoring only 1.0 goal per match on average, create chances worth 1.55 xG and record 5.0 shots on target per game. In their last five matches, both teams have been even more goal-oriented: Hansa scored 1.6 and conceded 2.8 goals on average, while Stuttgart II recorded figures of 1.8 and 2.2 respectively. The risk to the BTTS pick is that Stuttgart II have failed to score in 33% of their matches this season; however, the hosts’ very weak defensive record should reduce the significance of this scenario.

The match profile clearly favors goals: Hansa have scored an average of 1.6 goals in their last 5 matches but conceded as many as 2.8, while Stuttgart II recorded averages of 1.8 and 2.2 goals, respectively. In both teams, 4 of their last 5 matches went over 2.5 goals, while the league average stands at a high 3.32 goals per game. The hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet and have conceded an average of 3.0 goals, strengthening Stuttgart II’s chances, especially as they average 5.33 shots on target per match. The underlying data also remains offensive, with average xG figures of 1.64 for Hansa and 1.59 for the visitors across their last five matches. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as both teams regularly feature in open games and only two goals are needed for the bet to land.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Stuttgart II win at full-time, as the visitors have been level at the break in all 3 of their matches so far, while Hansa were trailing at half-time in their only home game. Stuttgart II average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match, whereas Hansa score just 1.00 and allow as many as 3.00. The visitors’ advantage is also clear after the break: they have won the second half in 67% of their matches and have a positive second-half goal difference of +1, while the hosts have lost every second half, conceding an average of 2.00 goals. Hansa attempt more shots, 15.00 compared with 10.67, but Stuttgart II’s conversion rate stands at 16%, versus just 7% for the hosts, increasing the likelihood that an evenly contested start will turn into a final victory for the visitors.